TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$281,930
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$271,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,930 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x252d…c456backed Yes12c65,535$8,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,125.5347721.6%103 W · 374 L-21.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes19c13,053$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.2835123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e73…d43fbacked No78c12,859$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,858.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cd…f566backed Yes7c9,109$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003917.9%7 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+105%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No74c4,517$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea4…4bf3backed Yes21c4,426$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.42821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a47…aa53backed Yes15c3,476$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.954415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes3c3,244$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b78…e410backed Yes28c3,201$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.8119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-87.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1ad…e360backed Yes13c3,087$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e25…172fbacked Yes2c3,015$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes9c2,932$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.19234.3%1 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick14cpaid-88.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes22c2,811$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.6337745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No75c2,576$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64413770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4181…1e46backed No80c2,498$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.671353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick67cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1225…2da1backed Yes8c1,967$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes19c1,890$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.5587828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,774$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.776785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…fd96backed Yes8c1,760$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1491612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72bf…7177backed Yes8c1,677$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ede…558ebacked Yes13c1,522$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4046…ac27backed Yes8c1,384$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ea…4bdabacked Yes13c1,361$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc487…c9adbacked Yes8c1,231$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb325…022fbacked Yes13c1,221$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c1,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.82125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0543…d255backed Yes8c1,096$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25025824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes2c974.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.94260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc93a…6b34backed Yes2c899.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c855.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.621463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee2…c6c1backed Yes5c801.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No68c767$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.6213053.8%70 W · 60 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes14c759$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6110%0 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9934…b443backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes28c700$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1963321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b4…b08fbacked Yes28c626.83$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes25c607.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.486013.3%8 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…fa68backed Yes13c578.7$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x131f…2fedbacked Yes14c539.61$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.32119%4 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c533.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.081,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c511.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.312999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1354564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bf1…b75ebacked Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes8c499.22$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.883013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc56…5886backed No71c444.93$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2e…e4cebacked Yes29c444.93$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.03110%0 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12781.3%1 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2053…b14abacked No71c399.99$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa54b…81a7backed Yes15c395$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b6a…6e97backed No78c384.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3faa…feb4backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec39…bbe5backed Yes19c340.05$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb718…dde1backed Yes24c309.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes6c306$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.671431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes20c274.72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9430531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed No73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.974042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ddd…950bbacked Yes15c239.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed No76c234.1$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.665048%24 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes19c233.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9855032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Yes48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325d…f38fbacked Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No72c199.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.353171%22 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeebf…d3ffbacked Yes42c153$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Yes19c134.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e7…1af1backed No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6f9…5507backed Yes25c120.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+45%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3543…c63fbacked No76c120$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ec…998cbacked No76c105.36$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x534d…a7d3backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275766.7%38 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda94…c2cdbacked Yes27c85.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a3…d264backed No76c79.23$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.321776.5%13 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x737d…1f6bbacked No79c75.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.952630.8%8 W · 18 L-5.6wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-57.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaaf0…6968backed Yes40c70.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.93212.5%4 W · 28 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-56.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2294…0de3backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No71c49.15$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2531523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7de7…7082backed No72c46.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.794100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8916…efebbacked No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2040…956ebacked No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.977100%7 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c08…6b64backed No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-37.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xebba…6844backed No77c21.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7041…be3fbacked No79c21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23e…5b07backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.47100%7 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9292…25f0backed No62c16.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddfb…1805backed No79c14.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252f…e43fbacked No77c13.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.