TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3faa…feb4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 59 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick54cpaid+44.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+69.5%+$75.85
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+105.1%+$151.76
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+61.3%+$28.83
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+112.8%+$56.38
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+50.8%+$76.18
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+55.1%+$55.12
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$85.19
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$69.49
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$32.9
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+376.2%+$39.5
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+85.2%+$42.59
Will Brighton vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+51.5%+$25.76
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+170.3%+$34.05
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$50.6
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+48.4%+$24.19
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$310
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+75.4%+$30.18
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+316.7%+$79.17
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+122.2%+$36.67
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+29.9%+$20.91
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+44.9%+$22.46
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$94.12
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+101.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2025-11-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+81.8%+$13.5
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+58.7%+$23.49
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed ETH · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$650
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.