Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf8bcfa568031971a29149d856485e75935af825632eca421c4d6d8eafe486fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $368,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $354,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 16c | 71,829$11,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,376.63 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 10c | 23,368$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.85 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e0…4012backed Yes | 14c | 7,134$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes | 8c | 7,065$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed Yes | 4c | 7,000$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 10c | 6,063$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.98 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…0b7abacked Yes | 6c | 5,901$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b75…ad87backed Yes | 3c | 4,714$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,590$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…e8f9backed Yes | 9c | 4,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…4d7ebacked Yes | 9c | 4,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793b…3afcbacked Yes | 7c | 3,831$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 5c | 3,102$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 10c | 3,039$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.51 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed Yes | 8c | 2,900$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 8c | 2,824$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.01 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed Yes | 8c | 2,821$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.66 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,481$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…6cbcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,420$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…70d3backed Yes | 3c | 2,300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…b77bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,250$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…1b46backed Yes | 7c | 2,120$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.85 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…bd82backed Yes | 10c | 2,113$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 1,734$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…3ecabacked Yes | 10c | 1,451$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,388$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,385$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,302$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,230$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,229$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 67c | 1,222$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.86 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 1,171$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,148$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…2492backed Yes | 4c | 999$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 982.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…5129backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…0fbcbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 729.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 710.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 7c | 607.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6b…3064backed Yes | 6c | 491$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…8e98backed Yes | 9c | 469.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb937…3d44backed Yes | 4c | 439$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…9ddcbacked Yes | 5c | 414$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 406.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 10c | 161.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…ed7bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in December?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in December?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.