Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacfbbeb74517e7935e7db89eb718f92c34139bd0f28b36d6e3290d9aa0fa1d58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $453,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $453,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $453,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 6c | 72,915$4,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,323.3 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 13c | 26,945$3,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,527.98 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…c38cbacked No | 75c | 25,000$18,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,250 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed Yes | 25c | 24,500$6,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,125 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cd…f566backed Yes | 4c | 19,706$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.47 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 22c | 14,758$3,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,196.59 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 76c | 14,032$10,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,367.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 15c | 6,256$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.01 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 5,562$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 2c | 5,291$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,946$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 3c | 3,161$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…adeabacked Yes | 1c | 3,054$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked No | 69c | 2,800$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,203$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,737$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed Yes | 15c | 1,514$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,471$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 1,454$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…b443backed Yes | 7c | 1,391$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee2…c6c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,362$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…b75ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,323$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,255$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…45a9backed Yes | 11c | 899.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 899.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 15c | 866.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54b…81a7backed Yes | 9c | 800$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…b08fbacked Yes | 18c | 750$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 606.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 590.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…fd96backed Yes | 11c | 570.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…83a4backed Yes | 8c | 520.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 17c | 458.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 14c | 437.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…f9b2backed Yes | 22c | 418.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…2273backed Yes | 12c | 412$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 78 | 1.3%1 W · 77 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 14c | 386.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131f…2fedbacked Yes | 28c | 370.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x343b…fda0backed Yes | 18c | 333.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 33c | 304.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…8c00backed No | 79c | 177.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…fe27backed Yes | 13c | 152.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 21c | 145.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…0fe2backed Yes | 15c | 133.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 31c | 117.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…2676backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…d471backed No | 78c | 96.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…6f79backed No | 78c | 87.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…57dcbacked Yes | 20c | 83.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 14c | 79.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…d264backed No | 71c | 56.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 80c | 31.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…5c82backed No | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2780…b5bebacked No | 79c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…5ceebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…072abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 75c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…c0f3backed No | 75c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in December?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in December?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in December?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.