TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,843
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$237,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,843 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50170%0 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes8c20,085$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.31185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99d1…2fddbacked Yes7c19,789$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.491844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83e9…9f08backed Yes7c14,452$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.492560%15 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57ed…fdf0backed Yes25c10,000$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.8350%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe467…437fbacked Yes21c6,989$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002729.6%8 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+38.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01b2…0dcfbacked Yes8c5,106$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+74.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51b2…10cebacked Yes4c4,405$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1908719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+51.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes10c4,286$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.312638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes5c3,869$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0550130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb9…7459backed Yes5c3,818$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812045%9 W · 11 L+5.0wins+0.25per pick20cpaid+82.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed No76c3,505$2,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.537948.1%38 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c3,205$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.551,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc747…de65backed Yes16c3,170$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes16c2,476$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.16742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+73.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes16c2,392$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.644814.6%7 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes7c2,284$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16521034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes13c2,017$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.410226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No79c1,633$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.4129254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes11c1,623$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.881811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes25c1,600$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40422627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c1,347$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.93721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c1,107$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.994195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes5c1,077$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9612325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes5c1,070$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.96400%0 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes8c1,047$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25034143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6db…edbebacked Yes5c1,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes6c1,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.994238.1%16 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes3c928.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9242311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c901.7$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.427135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x359b…70eabacked Yes11c892.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes8c884.07$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.682438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes7c882.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9913321.8%29 W · 104 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13b3…7552backed Yes14c796.43$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111735.3%6 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick12cpaid+484.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x70a1…108bbacked Yes1c792.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb464…1d98backed Yes6c791.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes11c782.91$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.122123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+247.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b69…6622backed Yes38c781$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.781136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid+31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba2f…25e6backed Yes3c778.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.352128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e7…9bc7backed No62c766$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.08540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a70…a50bbacked Yes4c760.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.944928.6%14 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked No62c724$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.121872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c36…a9c1backed Yes9c713$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.31717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes38c709$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.421118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-68.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes9c688.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605817.2%10 W · 48 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+97.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe87f…7822backed Yes6c685.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432020%4 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-72.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes4c650.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.021693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c648.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.031332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a57…1f06backed Yes10c614.66$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.892958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+64.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed Yes5c608.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.398741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd72…4a1ebacked Yes20c577.37$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.82218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf7…fa07backed Yes5c565.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.551520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc91d…85febacked Yes2c535.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbcf…ba89backed Yes19c526.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x619b…7000backed Yes6c502$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.471010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057f…94a3backed Yes17c500.82$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.642931%9 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f1…15f9backed Yes31c494$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.144526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-28.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc180…9843backed Yes21c472.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes4c450$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91976.6%13 W · 184 L-0.8wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c447.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.645071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes10c432.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.636626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c411.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f6…dfd6backed Yes6c406.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.99933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes4c393.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.191703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe776…ad55backed Yes8c385.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-78.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes4c376.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7935921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9724…fbc7backed Yes7c365.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.297610.5%8 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63b3…ff39backed Yes6c352.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.944740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes18c350$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633625%9 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x152e…cc3dbacked Yes15c332.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid+29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18da…91c4backed Yes5c319.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes10c309.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304438.6%17 W · 27 L+6.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+50.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x022f…77c2backed Yes7c293.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2170%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes9c288$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.921245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420f…d2e5backed Yes18c284.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes7c270.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+27.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86c3…2020backed Yes8c266.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes23c264.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605922%13 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8088…d2eabacked Yes6c257.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…bbf9backed Yes4c250.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f96…9f40backed Yes7c228.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+78.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46cb…1134backed Yes26c219.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed Yes17c210$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.55550.9%28 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes11c209.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0211527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes10c208.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202711.1%3 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes5c207.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.511995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes8c203.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.291316.1%8 W · 123 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-63.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.465158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c18…de25backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.124712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x375a…dbd4backed Yes6c191.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8db…9403backed Yes8c181.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcb…5e57backed Yes6c174.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked Yes18c163.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.685416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdda2…ffa9backed Yes35c160$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c159$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x335c…6e62backed Yes13c157.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes16c155.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.