Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858123ef616e0bce0b80f8aa4c967ab91bd6da094cd217f53294356d3461c6bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $279,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 8c | 20,085$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.31 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…2fddbacked Yes | 7c | 19,789$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e9…9f08backed Yes | 7c | 14,452$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.49 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ed…fdf0backed Yes | 25c | 10,000$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 21c | 6,989$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…0dcfbacked Yes | 8c | 5,106$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 4c | 4,405$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes | 10c | 4,286$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 3,869$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.05 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…7459backed Yes | 5c | 3,818$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 20cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 76c | 3,505$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.53 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 3,205$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.55 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…de65backed Yes | 16c | 3,170$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,476$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,392$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.64 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 7c | 2,284$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 13c | 2,017$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 79c | 1,633$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.41 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 11c | 1,623$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 25c | 1,600$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 1,347$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,107$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 1,077$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 1,070$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 8c | 1,047$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…edbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 928.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 901.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359b…70eabacked Yes | 11c | 892.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 884.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 7c | 882.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b3…7552backed Yes | 14c | 796.43$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +484.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…108bbacked Yes | 1c | 792.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed Yes | 6c | 791.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes | 11c | 782.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed Yes | 38c | 781$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…25e6backed Yes | 3c | 778.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed No | 62c | 766$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Yes | 4c | 760.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 62c | 724$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.12 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…a9c1backed Yes | 9c | 713$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 38c | 709$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b2bebacked Yes | 9c | 688.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…7822backed Yes | 6c | 685.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 650.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 648.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…1f06backed Yes | 10c | 614.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 5c | 608.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd72…4a1ebacked Yes | 20c | 577.37$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf7…fa07backed Yes | 5c | 565.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91d…85febacked Yes | 2c | 535.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…ba89backed Yes | 19c | 526.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…7000backed Yes | 6c | 502$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…94a3backed Yes | 17c | 500.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 31c | 494$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc180…9843backed Yes | 21c | 472.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 447.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 432.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 411.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f6…dfd6backed Yes | 6c | 406.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 393.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…ad55backed Yes | 8c | 385.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 376.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 7c | 365.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed Yes | 6c | 352.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes | 18c | 350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…cc3dbacked Yes | 15c | 332.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18da…91c4backed Yes | 5c | 319.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes | 10c | 309.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…77c2backed Yes | 7c | 293.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 288$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…d2e5backed Yes | 18c | 284.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes | 7c | 270.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c3…2020backed Yes | 8c | 266.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 264.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…d2eabacked Yes | 6c | 257.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…bbf9backed Yes | 4c | 250.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…9f40backed Yes | 7c | 228.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cb…1134backed Yes | 26c | 219.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 11c | 209.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 10c | 208.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 207.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 203.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…de25backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Yes | 6c | 191.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…9403backed Yes | 8c | 181.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…5e57backed Yes | 6c | 174.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 18c | 163.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 159$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 13c | 157.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 16c | 155.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.