World Politics · resolved market
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd700f83787dedec5edc10bb118956c4f6a58a1135810b917eab94b6b778ea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 12,617$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 8c | 6,795$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.63 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…5111backed No | 3c | 5,009$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 12c | 4,596$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.44 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 9c | 2,407$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 14c | 2,375$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.93 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…6879backed No | 1c | 2,168$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…adc3backed No | 12c | 2,000$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 1,727$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…de93backed No | 14c | 1,317$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 19c | 1,254$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 17c | 1,188$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 16c | 1,155$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 13c | 960$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 10c | 741.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 14c | 699.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 12c | 666.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 16c | 568.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 530.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91a…4ea7backed No | 10c | 513.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…a745backed No | 17c | 470$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 7c | 411.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 38c | 390.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…dde0backed Yes | 79c | 304.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 12c | 300.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c9…1696backed No | 7c | 299.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 291.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…60debacked No | 12c | 282.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 11c | 276.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 11c | 264.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 253.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcc…619cbacked No | 14c | 249.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +594.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 64c | 249.2$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 13c | 212.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 15c | 181.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 19c | 165.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked No | 13c | 158$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 12c | 154.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 11c | 144.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…82ddbacked Yes | 73c | 137.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b8…08e8backed Yes | 75c | 133.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 72cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 12c | 123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb294…ab90backed No | 34c | 110.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 10c | 101.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…ea38backed No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…6f83backed Yes | 66c | 99.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 73c | 98.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d0…4b71backed No | 17c | 94.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked No | 12c | 94.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…cd67backed No | 14c | 83.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…5242backed No | 14c | 82.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…d2babacked Yes | 69c | 82.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71be…61a0backed Yes | 71c | 56.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…3dc1backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4644…a2b6backed No | 38c | 52.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ea…9343backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 47.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…a6f4backed Yes | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…bd8abacked Yes | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…1f32backed No | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bc…eb65backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…429ebacked Yes | 69c | 29.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…9c29backed Yes | 72c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +415.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5aa…54c1backed Yes | 75c | 27.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…fd4bbacked Yes | 72c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…ab96backed Yes | 73c | 21.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…44f9backed Yes | 71c | 21.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…c67fbacked Yes | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4860…2690backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…19fabacked Yes | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c0…5432backed Yes | 67c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c4…0f96backed Yes | 68c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election?this page
- Will Erwann Davoux win the Marseille mayor election?No won
- Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election?No won
- Will Martine Vassal win the Marseille mayor election?No won
- Will Sébastien Delogu win the Marseille mayor election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.