TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,119 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes18c5,153$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,251.051250%6 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+87.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25bf…825abacked Yes11c4,000$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,543.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+102.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes18c3,250$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.249850%49 W · 49 L+16.1wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5e41…3745backed Yes62c3,165$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.92944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No77c2,540$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes8c2,337$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,148.9111435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes13c2,312$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.441070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+114.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe947…ab96backed Yes16c2,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.981241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d9…fdd5backed Yes21c1,671$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.681741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes14c1,655$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.7919742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes21c1,152$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.139123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No76c1,026$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.862951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes15c1,006$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.39348.4%45 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes21c914.17$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No13c901.33$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.077526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes23c885$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0d…c6bebacked Yes14c878.87$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.22941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Yes23c856$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.121040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c799.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.9954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a04…2310backed Yes23c799$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa309…516dbacked Yes7c745.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.53922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes21c737.01$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.852536%9 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes19c613.13$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.36250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes18c599.67$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.297451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1597…d74fbacked Yes20c502.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.6540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No79c499.99$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.9928434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d2…800bbacked Yes20c406.36$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.36475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+154.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b0…3d89backed Yes25c403.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…90c3backed Yes16c388.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.461241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd470…ea38backed Yes47c350$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df5…c097backed Yes36c335.12$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.14580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+86.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb55…3eb2backed Yes15c324.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.11723.5%4 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes22c319.76$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.761457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…04fabacked Yes8c299.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.991127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa9f…7e5dbacked Yes20c274.93$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+395.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4772…8bf4backed Yes19c259.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+159.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ba…e04abacked Yes57c254.69$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.271421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcda4…3b8dbacked Yes80c251.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes16c250$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2103740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b4e…af9ebacked Yes14c240.82$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+616.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes15c238.49$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.723551.4%18 W · 17 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+87%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes15c238$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2537117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c237.64$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1756314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No79c230.33$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.444175.6%31 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf288…9719backed Yes26c221.77$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+144.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes22c216.83$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.183951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed Yes24c208.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+176.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e8…b571backed Yes23c205.77$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.44862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc03…f66fbacked No16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322441.7%10 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.30per pick11cpaid+459.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked No19c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.82250%11 W · 11 L+8.4wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+647.1%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x754d…6741backed Yes72c196.81$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.141233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes28c182.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1712556.8%71 W · 54 L+12.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes21c182.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.116533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59af…9e76backed Yes17c170.59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes16c168.44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5434726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cc…d682backed Yes59c168.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c91…be57backed Yes23c153.75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+119.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf68…e9a7backed Yes15c151.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.86933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+58.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.15135.3%18 W · 33 L+12.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+385.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf632…40c6backed Yes23c150$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+341.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4919…33fbbacked Yes16c139.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.91369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+83.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No65c138.12$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1699017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x305f…26e4backed Yes9c122.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+441.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes21c119.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.183033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed Yes23c118.57$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.712759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes12c118.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.23917.9%7 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd664…cd4cbacked Yes16c115$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b05…712abacked Yes14c105$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick41cpaid+331.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0fc…f25fbacked Yes14c101.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794544.4%20 W · 25 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a45…4eecbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d24…7c37backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+272.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41850%9 W · 9 L+6.6wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+373.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x16cc…ec40backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+102.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x396c…56adbacked Yes16c99.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.91944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+105.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes27c99.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.068354.2%45 W · 38 L+18.2wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+66.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1401…2bc2backed Yes21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes20c86.68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2544921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes20c81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.081520%3 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes17c76.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.094250%21 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes17c74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.485052%26 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3424…6b9fbacked Yes23c72.18$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+216.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No80c70.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.665563.6%35 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb302…702dbacked Yes15c69.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.23850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No77c68.73$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7914225.4%36 W · 106 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No29c59.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.416343.6%71 W · 92 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82cd…9ccdbacked Yes19c59.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+91.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No29c55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.795232.7%17 W · 35 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed Yes19c53.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.512015%3 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes23c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.75119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-59.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce2c…633abacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick41cpaid+232%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.524736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes26c44.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8218246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No41c31.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9839414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No42c29.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.524259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No49c22.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.162548%12 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.26per pick22cpaid+119.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c22.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c19.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.581,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.