World Politics · resolved market
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 15–20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e51e917884fa376c31c236e5a6d549e972d8cd1817f1c3f65445e271559203a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,276 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 1c | 6,974$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…90c3backed Yes | 17c | 2,956$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes | 16c | 2,491$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x396c…56adbacked Yes | 2c | 1,196$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 683.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…05dfbacked Yes | 5c | 625.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 34c | 624.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…fdd5backed Yes | 7c | 574.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 3c | 496.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 5c | 491.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…c6bebacked Yes | 7c | 463.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…ab96backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…6741backed Yes | 9c | 287.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 5c | 274.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb55…3eb2backed Yes | 19c | 184.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes | 16c | 182.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 8c | 182.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4772…8bf4backed Yes | 13c | 151.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 39.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 15–20%?this page
- Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 10–15%?No won
- Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 20%+?No won
- Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?No won
- Will the Rachida Dati List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.