Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcae372f8ae7dc24db21e88fa0dc65bbaf420f61f2e358255e389a5ec3e4dbe1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 4c | 91,757$3,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,691.17 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 4c | 34,117$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.88 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…68d1backed Yes | 0c | 19,458$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 12,452$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.85 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 5c | 9,027$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.67 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 7,298$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.24 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bd…da22backed Yes | 12c | 4,823$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 6c | 4,310$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.81 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…04f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,693$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,446$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…b52ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,229$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ad…1174backed Yes | 4c | 1,169$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,016$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 2c | 911.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 911$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.23 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 7c | 904.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 9c | 880$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 748.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b87…d95cbacked Yes | 8c | 568$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 424.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d50…a46ebacked Yes | 10c | 410$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked Yes | 7c | 409.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…e24dbacked Yes | 4c | 391.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 15c | 390.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.73 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 11c | 384.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435e…aa60backed Yes | 5c | 257.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1868…e215backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…8fc1backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…d709backed Yes | 8c | 180.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…2a01backed Yes | 8c | 157.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…7542backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 80c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the July meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.