Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd920de24307b1a9855de7d4e9b52014844310e1e0f7211a551a5a64cc1ecc702
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $480,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $544,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed No | 10c | 150,406$14,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,424.16 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 17,881$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.56 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 12,700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.1 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked No | 3c | 5,371$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 4c | 5,087$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.07 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 8c | 2,890$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 11c | 2,398$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.36 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 27c | 2,110$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +215.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 8c | 1,585$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 6c | 1,231$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…599dbacked No | 4c | 1,205$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ad…1174backed No | 4c | 1,190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,174$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…623abacked No | 4c | 999.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 8c | 952.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…9cabbacked No | 8c | 930.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…5129backed No | 4c | 754.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…cd8bbacked No | 7c | 750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 15c | 670$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.17 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +9.2wins | +0.44per pick | 14cpaid | +420%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…8e1abacked No | 3c | 592.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 9c | 522$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 4c | 369.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 9c | 356.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…ecb9backed No | 8c | 249.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…3e84backed No | 10c | 224.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 172$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 126$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…adc2backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the July meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.