World Politics · resolved market
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a302c6f4e7ce5e4d0c2a06ed8fcdee5d36316c60090ae76c609b78a0a5b5510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5f6…adc3backed No | 20c | 2,456$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 17c | 1,623$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.05 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 1,509$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.44 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 5c | 1,500$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.11 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +373.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,331$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.94 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 5c | 1,314$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.27 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +12.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…9ec2backed No | 23c | 1,284$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e41…3745backed Yes | 51c | 1,274$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 26c | 1,200$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.24 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 27c | 892$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 27c | 853$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 28c | 825$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +11.9wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 73c | 609$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 40c | 607.04$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.44 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 61c | 582$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 73c | 568$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 73c | 568$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 39c | 542.37$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.74 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.26per pick | 22cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 477.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 414.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 30c | 411$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -87%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked No | 70c | 411$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…81cabacked Yes | 10c | 401$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 61c | 332$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 39c | 326$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 39c | 301$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 39c | 287$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 4c | 259.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +647.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…e23cbacked No | 18c | 248.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Yes | 19c | 217.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 9c | 149.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.86 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdede…4747backed Yes | 46c | 147.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 18c | 141.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 99.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…e2f4backed Yes | 46c | 65.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…8592backed Yes | 25c | 58.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 18c | 57.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…55c9backed Yes | 31c | 48.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…6e43backed Yes | 37c | 47.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 38.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 38.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…3b87backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 32c | 31.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f397backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 52c | 29.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…eaa4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?this page
- Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?Yes won
- Will Jean-Philippe Veter be the next mayor of Strasbourg?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.