World Politics · resolved market
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87179e6f3327ea5bc43b0708c545e8c59ed05b1cb32e43ed758436b1f37cea16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5f6…adc3backed Yes | 22c | 4,035$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,141.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked No | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e41…3745backed Yes | 26c | 3,610$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,509$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.92 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…04f5backed No | 0c | 2,332$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,950$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.38 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +12.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…9ec2backed Yes | 18c | 1,668$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,421$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +373.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…3134backed Yes | 69c | 1,379$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,294$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.02 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 4c | 1,126$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.97 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…7c26backed Yes | 42c | 1,012$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.30per pick | 11cpaid | +459.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 10c | 825$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.75 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +11.9wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 10c | 600$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.64 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +647.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 24c | 559.18$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.54 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…7848backed Yes | 60c | 545.97$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 19c | 429.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 67c | 371.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 333.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes | 54c | 297.31$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 6c | 276.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 74c | 259.67$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2310…f418backed No | 42c | 259.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d6…e94bbacked No | 39c | 255.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 23c | 208.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.88 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 186.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.47 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 15c | 169.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 165.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 69c | 157.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 25c | 156.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 42c | 149.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…c097backed Yes | 29c | 145.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…4ab1backed Yes | 61c | 133.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f9…f701backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…d682backed Yes | 49c | 115.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…9392backed Yes | 58c | 112.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580a…c4c0backed Yes | 16c | 98.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +194.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…cb87backed Yes | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 82.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 54c | 79.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…cfaebacked Yes | 15c | 69.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6491…74b2backed Yes | 71c | 68.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +101%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 34c | 60.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +487.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed No | 38c | 58.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 29c | 56.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…dd76backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…d246backed Yes | 62c | 49.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 72c | 48.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…3b87backed Yes | 56c | 41.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 37.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…e23cbacked No | 41c | 36.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0f…ec43backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf036…609bbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f2…c1c1backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…7851backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ca…2d58backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked Yes | 68c | 23.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed5…9638backed Yes | 60c | 23.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…dbaebacked Yes | 61c | 20.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?this page
- Will Jean-Philippe Veter be the next mayor of Strasbourg?No won
- Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.