Tennis · resolved market
Will Valentin Vacherot win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41738b16b00ba5c06714364f87abf951c2726a8bba854f0c5895d3822f1fc6a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35c0…81d6backed No | 0c | 10,121$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 67c | 2,305$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.28 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 7c | 1,438$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.81 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 39c | 1,284$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.51 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,111$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.99 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…4f12backed Yes | 27c | 1,097$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Yes | 3c | 980.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.83 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 41c | 641.09$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.02 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 66c | 539.25$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 25c | 499.82$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes | 42c | 474.28$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.09 | 325 | 48%156 W · 169 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…ac7fbacked Yes | 42c | 469.79$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Yes | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Yes | 40c | 436$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.24 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Yes | 8c | 394.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.08 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 41c | 341.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.17 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 650 | 40%260 W · 390 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Yes | 42c | 214$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Yes | 37c | 213$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.87 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.59 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 15c | 144.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.03 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed No | 76c | 102.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Yes | 64c | 99.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 74c | 93.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3579…0cbfbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 65c | 69.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 56c | 68.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 66c | 67.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 40c | 44.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 31c | 41.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…026dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed Yes | 45c | 27.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 65c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valentin Vacherot win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Holger Rune win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.