Tennis · resolved market
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x791c2eb91d4795158ca5a0e2107d8b79b87c2ca1187fd9d6d5be90cc897785f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed No | 47c | 999.98$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.99 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Yes | 8c | 893.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked Yes | 53c | 839.64$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.01 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…442dbacked Yes | 29c | 275.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed Yes | 27c | 256.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 30c | 243.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 73c | 220.01$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…ac5abacked Yes | 55c | 201.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 31c | 160.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 154.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…4253backed Yes | 27c | 143$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…ba27backed Yes | 26c | 140.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 63c | 125.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 69c | 88.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 61c | 84.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 29c | 69.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 177 | 46.9%83 W · 94 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…b4ecbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…e548backed Yes | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Holger Rune win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Valentin Vacherot win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.