Tennis · resolved market
Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd59cfd783e36ec4d7854fa0c9313bc8084cf94dcd34371c57511828e19ca7309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35c0…81d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,121$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Yes | 9c | 5,606$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.43 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 53c | 2,821$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.81 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,188$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 59c | 1,950$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.44 | 644 | 55.3%356 W · 288 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes | 58c | 1,582$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0356…11a8backed Yes | 53c | 1,500$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 42c | 1,479$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.7 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Yes | 63c | 952.7$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 44c | 696.99$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.26 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked No | 42c | 688.76$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 30c | 615.86$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.14 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Yes | 71c | 520$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.2 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 58c | 500$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Yes | 61c | 491.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 252 | 52.4%132 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…25f8backed Yes | 20c | 484.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 72c | 390.94$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Yes | 59c | 383.16$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.31 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 9c | 348.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Yes | 78c | 285.24$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 31c | 272.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…3d9abacked Yes | 79c | 252.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 42c | 237.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.62 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Yes | 59c | 235.43$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked No | 43c | 233.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 49c | 214.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 50c | 204.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 63c | 202.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes | 13c | 139.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 18c | 132.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked Yes | 63c | 103.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 43c | 93.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 18c | 84.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ae…613abacked Yes | 60c | 82.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed No | 38c | 74.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…e357backed No | 27c | 73.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3579…0cbfbacked Yes | 59c | 67.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 158 | 60.8%96 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b3…3f7ebacked Yes | 57c | 53.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 79c | 52.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5414backed Yes | 61c | 49.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Yes | 62c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 45.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef5a…b535backed No | 42c | 45.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…0dacbacked Yes | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f7…afd6backed No | 40c | 37.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 57c | 35.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 891 | 64.3%573 W · 318 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 58c | 28.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 748 | 61.9%463 W · 285 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c3d6backed Yes | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arthur Rinderknech win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Holger Rune win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?No won
- Will Valentin Vacherot win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles Tournament?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.