Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a937f5db5c57600543afd2f3ca39f5ae53fa15911ee24fa2aae509ac8edc4d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 13c | 7,245$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 5,417$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 4,505$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.34 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 80c | 4,165$3,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.58 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 1c | 4,052$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed Yes | 13c | 3,776$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed Yes | 17c | 2,860$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…5d1cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,312$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594f…ddb6backed Yes | 1c | 2,180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…2a87backed Yes | 22c | 2,150$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…2446backed Yes | 23c | 2,134$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 77c | 1,914$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 1,909$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 14c | 1,867$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.08 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.29 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…64cabacked Yes | 21c | 1,463$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd022…7b52backed Yes | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,039$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 20c | 989.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b07…14fabacked Yes | 15c | 985.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 21c | 945.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 932.49$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 2c | 908.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 12c | 892.63$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…4925backed Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 51c | 834.97$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.69 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked Yes | 13c | 799.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 79c | 771.57$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.06 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…5895backed Yes | 26c | 769.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 767.28$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.49 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6003…e0f8backed Yes | 34c | 740.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 13c | 715$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 70c | 698.26$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.04 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 21c | 599.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Yes | 49c | 536.08$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c581backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 23c | 465.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 24c | 439.11$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 428.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…34fcbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…d026backed Yes | 25c | 400.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 25c | 394.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede7…4329backed Yes | 21c | 378.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…4402backed Yes | 22c | 367.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 4c | 363.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 72c | 359$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 24c | 349.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 13c | 342.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 75c | 340.55$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 12c | 306$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79da…e355backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Yes | 25c | 299.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe473…0dafbacked No | 67c | 295.52$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 20c | 291.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…f6d6backed Yes | 46c | 261.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 250.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa714…8f50backed Yes | 12c | 249$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 76c | 244.96$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 25c | 243.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 80c | 236.85$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…a359backed Yes | 19c | 232.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 227.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…bcf6backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 22c | 205.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb6…b5f4backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…aa45backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4a…5961backed No | 79c | 194.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 24c | 193.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 25c | 187.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 76c | 182.68$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…4611backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0a2dbacked Yes | 19c | 165.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…24e4backed Yes | 22c | 161.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 80c | 145$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df0…a9c1backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e10…e039backed Yes | 19c | 129.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…7e5abacked Yes | 26c | 129.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…47e1backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4de1backed Yes | 26c | 124.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950d…1426backed Yes | 16c | 122.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…c60cbacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec73…6af3backed Yes | 23c | 114.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab8…590fbacked Yes | 18c | 110.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked No | 69c | 108.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…fc09backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 80c | 105.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…ba4fbacked Yes | 14c | 104.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?this page
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by November 30?No won
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.