Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6ff802ee9633b0cedff0df668b27d6c65d3e2b5f187539fe17b3148f83c424d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 12c | 6,174$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.74 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.94 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…58b9backed Yes | 6c | 4,415$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 10c | 4,080$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.71 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 7c | 2,631$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.87 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa9…b675backed Yes | 10c | 2,014$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,708$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,454$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 1,137$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,027$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…6a3cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,017$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…746ebacked Yes | 3c | 883.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 2c | 752$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d2…9f8fbacked Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 656.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 645.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9344…e1e6backed Yes | 2c | 590.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 4c | 570.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…d975backed Yes | 10c | 531.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 8c | 483$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 5c | 414.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…c6b4backed Yes | 9c | 388.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 3c | 350.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 5c | 293$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…9676backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…ca9ebacked Yes | 9c | 215$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 79c | 211.77$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…485cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…e40dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…6ee3backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdd…b20ebacked Yes | 7c | 195.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 24c | 189.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 16c | 187.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600d…8261backed Yes | 18c | 165.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 10c | 157.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 10c | 102.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 72c | 55.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…2eafbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?this page
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by November 30?No won
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.