Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd757680e9e73d40ffcd21f729d49394305e70ecca655a10f56ea17fd654a2d8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 4,191$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b07…14fabacked Yes | 11c | 3,631$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 2c | 3,340$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed Yes | 7c | 2,339$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed Yes | 14c | 1,588$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,497$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 78c | 1,089$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.24 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…7a52backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 673.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…d022backed Yes | 8c | 600.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 9c | 499.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 13c | 493.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 3c | 461.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 327$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 8c | 180.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed Yes | 6c | 180.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfc…974bbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 12c | 148$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 8c | 132.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…9d03backed Yes | 38c | 130$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…ce43backed Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 63c | 106.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…0e94backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by November 30?this page
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.