Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb6ee0278db8c3d686ff52f75258209ac4d5394b0c8cc2c643f0abdeaae6afff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $318,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $318,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 19c | 35,020$6,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,657.48 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 20,767$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.33 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 0c | 17,619$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…03f3backed Yes | 3c | 11,347$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 7,446$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.51 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 72c | 6,398$4,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.94 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 4,566$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 78c | 4,404$3,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.64 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed Yes | 3c | 3,509$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6003…e0f8backed Yes | 4c | 3,492$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 4c | 3,187$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,884$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d4f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,274$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…8b64backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 69c | 1,886$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.52 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fe…a41abacked Yes | 2c | 1,858$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,840$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,779$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…81e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,679$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 7c | 1,535$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 7c | 1,496$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb398…d1cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,426$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,333$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 1c | 1,264$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…5f25backed Yes | 5c | 1,224$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916d…44d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,142$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 59c | 1,084$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.87 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,080$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 1,037$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 12c | 1,025$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 11c | 999.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 991.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…b56ebacked Yes | 15c | 908.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…df1cbacked Yes | 4c | 893.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0e…7fbbbacked Yes | 2c | 885.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 26c | 875.49$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.74 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…688bbacked Yes | 7c | 871.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 3c | 849.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e64…fd77backed Yes | 18c | 817.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 815.33$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 9c | 753.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 14c | 749.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 749.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…b89dbacked No | 67c | 738.29$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 41c | 726.65$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…75a6backed Yes | 2c | 560$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 80c | 553.9$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 11c | 547.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 516.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…5ac8backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 2c | 492.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…b260backed Yes | 4c | 485.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 28c | 475.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 10c | 409.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…0a7dbacked Yes | 3c | 375.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…8b89backed Yes | 3c | 366.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 8c | 361.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0286…eb6cbacked Yes | 42c | 357$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 351.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 65c | 350$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…9108backed Yes | 19c | 348.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 4c | 343.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed Yes | 23c | 316.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 305.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 5c | 284.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 278.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 25c | 260$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 15c | 254.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 16c | 249.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 4c | 246.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 76c | 244.06$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 4c | 235.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 65c | 232$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 227.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186f…cb99backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4de1backed Yes | 15c | 203.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 23c | 201.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 17c | 201.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaf…8ae7backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…9b14backed Yes | 8c | 181.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9f…7c52backed Yes | 18c | 180.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 24c | 170$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes | 37c | 153.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 75c | 144$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 67c | 139.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked Yes | 45c | 111.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?this page
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?No won
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?No won
- Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.