TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Reds, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,325
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,325 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7435…a620backed Reds57c26,273$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00028646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Nationals43c20,000$8,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,40053150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Reds54c15,802$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,50026847.4%127 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Nationals46c12,576$5,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,788.1997950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c95…0a3abacked Nationals44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.9411555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals56c2,607$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.749,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Reds14c2,575$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.5238444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Reds57c2,540$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.5232852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Reds56c2,351$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.5631346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Nationals43c2,163$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.0738249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nationals42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6b…47e9backed Reds57c1,700$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.31966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Nationals44c1,511$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.3631248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds56c1,222$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.322,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Nationals44c1,193$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.1838949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Reds52c1,159$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60510544.8%47 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nationals44c899.99$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.991,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Reds55c898.89$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.395,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Reds4c853.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1293240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Nationals43c799.96$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.9833852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Nationals38c703.37$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.4610548.6%51 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9edc…a0c0backed Nationals43c650$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Reds4c609.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.278762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Reds47c605$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.911,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Nationals43c551$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.0724547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Nationals50c550.11$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.4854941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Nationals44c547.73$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.7314148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Reds57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28542452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x665a…174ebacked Nationals43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Nationals45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27532042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2aee…6760backed Nationals44c499.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Nationals44c488.47$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.346550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cef…d42cbacked Nationals44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals45c419.8$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.82,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Reds53c377.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.874060%24 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals46c334$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.986,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1683,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Nationals43c296$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7250843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Reds4c288$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.961346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Nationals45c233.33$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3399951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Nationals43c233$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8131347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Nationals45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2263052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Reds56c215.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Reds56c210.75$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0224253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30be…3566backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7e…4b6fbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9f…8483backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf716…c440backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0c2…0705backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8a…1a07backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5322…6b5fbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5070…0039backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ee…7fb2backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdbe…fbe3backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9752…bd2ebacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123271.9%23 W · 9 L+7.0wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+46.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4e4b…d536backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b4f…2737backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123250%16 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90df…18cfbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa444…c492backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc909…6393backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa51b…8938backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123164.5%20 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bf5…ee08backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7811…36d3backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a54…7d39backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa266…9abcbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafbd…67aebacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb75…bd65backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…06b5backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97b2…88d1backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d59…569ebacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e57…836cbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffe…8149backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3601…43dfbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1123647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b6…d335backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123450%17 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f02…8dcebacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123450%17 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6b…2883backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x411f…5a20backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+38.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb72d…aa23backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc312…d500backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12de…d4b5backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf26c…12acbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122045%9 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a1…8edfbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…aa96backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8e2…7de9backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x977e…910bbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf783…7684backed Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b01…aeb1backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…e236backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-48.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdba3…f9ccbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53b5…7e4fbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d0…87efbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x600b…45eabacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b2…94dfbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe319…3604backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…4f0cbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfadf…eea8backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5795…324cbacked Nationals44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c4c…408cbacked Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd5…b301backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eac…4ff0backed Reds56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.