TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Mariners

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Mariners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$197,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$176,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc605…d372backed Mariners59c38,037$22,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,423.588641.9%36 W · 50 L-15.3wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-32.4%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Mariners61c21,230$12,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,950.2227948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…77bfbacked Orioles39c15,000$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,15015553.5%83 W · 72 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles47c11,810$5,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,288.752,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ed…621ebacked Orioles40c9,998$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,998.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ec…f0fcbacked Mariners60c9,998$5,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,998.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Orioles40c8,827$3,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,268.2114747.6%70 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles41c7,994$3,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,716.211,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Orioles38c5,680$2,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,521.5541850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Orioles41c5,607$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.846556.9%37 W · 28 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+25.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Mariners58c5,136$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993.192161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…9d43backed Orioles35c4,777$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,084.0419650.5%99 W · 97 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a06…1e43backed Mariners39c4,769$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.639920.2%20 W · 79 L-12.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-41.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Mariners15c4,407$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.3897950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mariners21c4,207$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.751,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Mariners62c4,143$2,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,568.5932852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles41c3,787$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,238.798149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…6bf5backed Mariners59c3,400$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles39c3,205$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.972,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Orioles41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7701,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Mariners59c2,400$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.4421941.1%90 W · 129 L-19.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Orioles47c2,284$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.6514648.6%71 W · 75 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles39c2,197$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.131,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Orioles38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24026453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb8…74b8backed Mariners58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.993452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c40…5f2cbacked Orioles42c1,987$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.462050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Orioles41c1,951$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.091,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Mariners45c1,866$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.9786751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Orioles49c1,760$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.621767.7%147 W · 70 L+36.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xef57…90c1backed Mariners59c1,668$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9842544%11 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Mariners11c1,623$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4940547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcd…6bddbacked Orioles80c1,227$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.6717558.9%103 W · 72 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Mariners61c1,206$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.9538245.5%174 W · 208 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…4b92backed Orioles42c1,180$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.44438.6%17 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Mariners11c1,166$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5479740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked Orioles40c1,082$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.13450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Mariners20c1,008$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Mariners59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Mariners1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Orioles66c999.99$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Orioles42c999.96$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.9893240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles38c963.37$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.2933349.5%165 W · 168 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Mariners59c905$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.951,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Mariners7c872$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5145248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Mariners4c833.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.62488.9%22 W · 226 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Mariners63c793.65$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mariners37c771.72$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.069,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Mariners58c690.17$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.9288549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Mariners19c631.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12012624.6%31 W · 95 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a1…a8e1backed Orioles40c616.63$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.7915949.7%79 W · 80 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles43c615.72$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.5168656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Orioles38c518.97$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.765,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8520…2a3cbacked Mariners59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Mariners43c504.84$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.324,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Mariners60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Mariners59c481.36$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Mariners59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23692754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Orioles38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24833852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Mariners65c390.48$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.0716055.6%89 W · 71 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0ed…c5a4backed Mariners60c388.41$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2341546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Mariners32c370$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Mariners58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mariners59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c96…abc5backed Mariners59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1fd…af0dbacked Mariners60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004652.2%24 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Mariners59c313.56$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18517754.8%97 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Mariners41c287.29$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.611,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Mariners62c276.3$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.411357.5%65 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6079…5932backed Orioles74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.27955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick74cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Mariners59c254.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2339…e984backed Mariners59c243.74$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.811346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Mariners57c241.26$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.112335%43 W · 80 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0119…c14abacked Orioles17c238.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.41825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Orioles64c236.15$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.55977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Orioles39c231$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.991,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Mariners63c227.49$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7232832.3%106 W · 222 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked Mariners60c215.36$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13022958.5%134 W · 95 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…d651backed Mariners58c214.98$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6919849%97 W · 101 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Orioles40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Mariners62c193.55$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12074356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Mariners62c193.55$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd687…4faabacked Mariners34c170$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.81457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+62.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Orioles69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.935358.5%31 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…65ecbacked Orioles39c138.59$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+96.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x844b…80e0backed Orioles42c123.29$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.51475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+59.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd377…a0a5backed Mariners60c122.39$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5617149.7%85 W · 86 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5cf…e4bcbacked Orioles42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.053661.1%22 W · 14 L+5.9wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+31.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa4b0…20c6backed Mariners62c119$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e54…c37abacked Orioles38c119$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Mariners59c115.75$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2920649.5%102 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61ae…be79backed Mariners62c107$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff1…7c2cbacked Orioles38c107$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf96d…81f0backed Mariners28c105.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303231.3%10 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d15…c1c2backed Mariners28c104.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed1…d086backed Mariners58c103.88$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.597655.3%42 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x051d…6980backed Mariners32c101.73$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4320343.8%89 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Mariners59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5925416.1%41 W · 213 L-15.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Mariners62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6241751.3%214 W · 203 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7c8…24dcbacked Mariners58c99.01$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.434738.3%18 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.