TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,249,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,163,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,249,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 891 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca21…b07cbacked Timberwolves52c71,942$37,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,286.0222458.9%132 W · 92 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Timberwolves21c52,290$11,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,232.834052.5%21 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Timberwolves41c34,580$14,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,297.9112938%49 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Nuggets47c25,078$11,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,881.5370147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Timberwolves71c16,406$11,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,775.3529738.7%115 W · 182 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Nuggets51c15,766$8,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,074.9530443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Nuggets60c14,177$8,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,470.896873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf508…265cbacked Timberwolves69c13,787$9,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,318.144484.1%37 W · 7 L+9.7wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Nuggets58c12,170$7,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,013.0225865.5%169 W · 89 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe505…d18bbacked Timberwolves42c12,165$5,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,055.996253.2%33 W · 29 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves47c11,818$5,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,206.063,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Nuggets54c11,339$6,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,135.146426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Nuggets40c10,268$4,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.4119152.4%100 W · 91 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Nuggets1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008434.5%29 W · 55 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8776…3589backed Timberwolves41c9,700$3,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,770633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Timberwolves28c8,057$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,806.981,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Nuggets57c7,895$4,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,518.2428341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc36…1fa0backed Nuggets40c7,811$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.765950.8%30 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1872…ae0fbacked Nuggets63c7,802$4,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,916.56758.2%39 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Nuggets58c7,650$4,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,437.11,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Timberwolves42c7,497$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,348.2680146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nuggets49c6,983$3,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,418.171,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa073…ad94backed Nuggets56c6,885$3,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,86210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Timberwolves29c5,797$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,129.7888053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4698…6c24backed Nuggets58c5,779$3,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,336.933756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Nuggets49c5,500$2,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6953961.5%24 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Timberwolves43c5,309$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,009.5566744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef4…412cbacked Timberwolves29c5,114$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,624.353234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Timberwolves36c5,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd31a…a098backed Nuggets23c4,918$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.182835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a93…ecf9backed Nuggets64c4,884$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.3911250.9%57 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Timberwolves41c4,713$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.9761345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Timberwolves27c4,650$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,397.920050.5%101 W · 99 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Nuggets54c4,524$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438.5248046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Timberwolves34c4,390$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,913.526640.2%107 W · 159 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Nuggets55c4,006$2,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,203.496447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Nuggets64c4,000$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.9829858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Timberwolves55c3,770$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.428345.8%38 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Timberwolves41c3,595$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.0337734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce7…fd4abacked Nuggets74c3,558$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.6714057.9%81 W · 59 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed Timberwolves41c3,500$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.776250%31 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Nuggets32c3,430$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.0870640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…6be8backed Timberwolves36c3,232$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.329747.5%141 W · 156 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Nuggets62c3,074$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.9729957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Nuggets56c3,043$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.1145743.3%198 W · 259 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves42c3,000$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.681,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Timberwolves43c2,608$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.91,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a0…f8aabacked Timberwolves21c2,519$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.642437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Timberwolves41c2,400$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4161,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Timberwolves29c2,303$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.3419535.4%69 W · 126 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…132ebacked Timberwolves45c2,302$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7793…c561backed Timberwolves45c2,287$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a0…ad36backed Timberwolves45c2,285$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29bf…25b0backed Nuggets55c2,219$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.682060%12 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7709…5852backed Nuggets45c2,201$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011229.5%33 W · 79 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…7bd8backed Timberwolves47c2,199$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.53135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d4d…d691backed Timberwolves50c2,056$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.58785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick52cpaid+75.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Nuggets5c1,995$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.848783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf730…3de2backed Nuggets57c1,945$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1008962.9%56 W · 33 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…3e11backed Nuggets49c1,915$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.4222049.1%108 W · 112 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Nuggets9c1,912$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5636423.4%85 W · 279 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Nuggets69c1,909$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.5125248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Nuggets46c1,827$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.3720851.4%107 W · 101 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Timberwolves41c1,817$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.977745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed Timberwolves42c1,786$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.7129643.2%128 W · 168 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Timberwolves29c1,750$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24195848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa535…6bf5backed Nuggets60c1,620$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.029557.9%55 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Timberwolves77c1,607$1,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.8528347.7%135 W · 148 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Nuggets33c1,518$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Nuggets67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00536057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Nuggets55c1,500$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8301,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x532f…83ccbacked Timberwolves44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Nuggets65c1,494$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.2114563.4%92 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed Nuggets44c1,489$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501,88837.3%704 W · 1,184 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2745…17b3backed Nuggets56c1,443$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.091369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Nuggets58c1,435$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.4417047.1%80 W · 90 L+0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Nuggets50c1,385$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.923237.1%86 W · 146 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed Timberwolves36c1,320$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.678129.6%24 W · 57 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2dd…e1b2backed Nuggets65c1,293$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…591abacked Timberwolves41c1,284$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.76450%32 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75e…96ebbacked Timberwolves56c1,265$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.3875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+29.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Nuggets80c1,231$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.156841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed Nuggets77c1,212$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.5819451.5%100 W · 94 L-17.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-17.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xebed…97bebacked Nuggets30c1,200$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3605240.4%21 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Timberwolves46c1,200$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.9957760.5%349 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb9…2067backed Nuggets62c1,194$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.8112941.9%54 W · 75 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x596a…1219backed Nuggets69c1,163$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80023658.1%137 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Timberwolves43c1,161$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.6647848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Nuggets47c1,152$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.2613248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Nuggets56c1,124$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.2449849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Timberwolves45c1,108$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.071,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Timberwolves43c1,091$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.239038.9%35 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Timberwolves45c1,064$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.7536751.8%190 W · 177 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Timberwolves41c1,056$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.7634852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Nuggets55c1,036$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.7114034.3%48 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Nuggets49c1,000$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48570153.5%375 W · 326 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Nuggets61c1,000$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6091,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Nuggets57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Nuggets57c962.79$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55119944.7%89 W · 110 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Timberwolves30c908.04$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.341742%175 W · 242 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.