World Politics · resolved market
New US sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justices by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccb7248a7bae3a5f5dfdc38a766b00c32b9c2ac644076d5429dd3f6fe4d304c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed No | 11c | 6,168$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 27c | 1,427$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed No | 25c | 1,296$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 14c | 1,273$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 40c | 892.14$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.63 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…47f6backed No | 20c | 788.06$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 6c | 759.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…6006backed No | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 32c | 536.37$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.74 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 17c | 518.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 42c | 497$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.1 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…24babacked Yes | 50c | 427.2$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +425.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…e30cbacked Yes | 52c | 385.39$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 9c | 350$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 69c | 339.57$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.77 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 36c | 338.62$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.09 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…8a69backed Yes | 30c | 329.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 12cpaid | +245.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 26c | 298.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.33 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…9762backed No | 76c | 278.51$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 53c | 255.59$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 39c | 199.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 66c | 152.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…f13abacked No | 77c | 133.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…cd66backed Yes | 66c | 132.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 125.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 77c | 121$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 77c | 111$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 72c | 106.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…960bbacked No | 68c | 105$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 37c | 92.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 68c | 77.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…683abacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb9…882dbacked No | 78c | 63.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8b50backed Yes | 29c | 48.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 39c | 43.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 35c | 39.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 38c | 39.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…b423backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 49c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a67…15d3backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 58c | 31.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a0…96c7backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…d2a5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 58c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…e7d7backed Yes | 64c | 15.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.