TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddc0…3a00backed No53c11,879$6,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,617.862548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc943…c591backed Yes3c8,014$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ca…f294backed Yes32c7,042$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.884216.7%7 W · 35 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes17c5,562$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.846549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes30c4,616$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.243336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes41c4,323$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.865642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes22c4,052$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.42649.4%6 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes46c4,042$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.4937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes33c3,000$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.83836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed Yes33c2,761$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.252227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes9c2,734$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.137413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bac…ba73backed Yes70c2,561$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.151127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked No74c2,420$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.166637.9%25 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1808749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9927233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes4c1,722$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.441879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes40c1,721$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.6736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf1b5…4025backed No57c1,400$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6023100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes11c1,371$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.321926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa98b…850cbacked No79c1,321$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes15c1,032$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.664425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes40c1,015$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.12236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c999.99$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.5964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x82dc…aa35backed Yes25c999.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250210%0 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes29c972.85$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6312634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes12c952.53$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3513629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c889.12$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.511,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c3…5152backed Yes34c887.77$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c7…32cbbacked No63c885.67$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.921546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c874.18$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No3c856.81$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.115127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7214…433bbacked No72c837.38$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.382759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes14c799.82$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.171235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No52c727.73$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.181050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e85…8414backed Yes54c642.81$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3472231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed No66c633.52$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.824553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…0650backed Yes33c607.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf210…e8bdbacked No59c604$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.641127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes21c601.74$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1283745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes28c600$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No46c599.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.519445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No75c580$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.82657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes30c578$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6820823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes39c552.03$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba2d…8646backed Yes8c546.17$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed No47c529.21$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.216245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed No74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.72347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Yes47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7458…fecfbacked No56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a78…30b6backed No69c475$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d0…ea89backed Yes26c467.57$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.572330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes59c422.71$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.472737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1232…6984backed Yes24c421.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002119%4 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes24c417$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0870%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50a4…bdf5backed Yes51c412.88$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2103429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No56c399.06$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.594862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed Yes5c393.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204422.7%10 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab70…1b52backed No62c374.36$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No67c374.24$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.247445.9%34 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0af…e499backed No77c359.02$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.143100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd72…4a1ebacked Yes10c328.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.842218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c322.53$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9238…ac3ebacked No74c313.51$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3e…0b91backed Yes13c311.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.62010%2 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bae…d6f1backed Yes17c310.73$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes39c310.29$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.434753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73f9…9dbebacked Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes49c300$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1466136.1%22 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde70…81fdbacked No57c270$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1cc…71f4backed No77c260.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+92.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe8c…a6dcbacked No64c259.87$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf37b…da7abacked Yes39c259.62$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.253751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes40c250.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe371…d32ebacked Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003716.2%6 W · 31 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x47ff…2209backed No44c238.52$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0db…6693backed Yes24c231.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52a8…9bafbacked Yes45c220.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes33c215.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e8c…890fbacked Yes13c210$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.73625%9 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked No73c209.48$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.881764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed No77c206.24$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.81376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes39c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8273.7%1 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick19cpaid-94.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes30c199.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa51b…26b1backed No64c199.37$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.387147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes10c197.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed Yes48c186.03$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.483452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes17c170$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5925518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No57c170$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.19153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes22c165.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.926616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4655…4825backed No61c165.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…1e34backed No61c163.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.921070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7122…4e23backed Yes62c161.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcec6…0b1abacked No56c159.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-57.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No50c159.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805532.7%18 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9d…478abacked Yes14c159.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.65616.1%9 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-73.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c7d…52bebacked No63c157.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.