MLB · resolved market
Will there be 6+ bonus swing home runs during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x845e47b23cbdb978d74bde39aa960dca5685ce606c426cc0547a8b42bc8e674b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf462…e35fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,874$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…3c74backed No | 71c | 1,758$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 29c | 1,287$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 29c | 1,060$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…391dbacked Yes | 8c | 644.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 79c | 500$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 21c | 450$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed No | 71c | 421.37$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…d22bbacked Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked Yes | 29c | 212.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 49c | 188$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 30c | 187.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 38c | 178$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked No | 76c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 6+ bonus swing home runs during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?this page
- Will there be 15+ bonus swing home runs during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?No won
- Will there be 3+ bonus swing home runs during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.