Us Midterms · resolved market
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8456dd5e8dd45d57729978061bfe8cd85388a98a6575a403f6b30c566f5f0ef0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 1c | 2,084$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 1c | 1,995$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 42c | 1,937$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 54c | 616.23$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 75c | 425$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 23c | 324.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.86 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 43c | 282$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 192.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 42c | 151.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 145.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 101$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242b…ea2abacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 24c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 48c | 35.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 33.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…4eb7backed Yes | 69c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 41c | 27.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31?this page
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 30% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 10% by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.