Us Midterms · resolved market
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa40d16f806e69f4cb0cb580b762005794264a4b803b11eda426bb0bbdd00677d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb219…03f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,640$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,474$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 786.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 617.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 602.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 540.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 538.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 4c | 461.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 7c | 265$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked Yes | 7c | 153.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 16c | 145$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31?this page
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 30% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 10% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.