Us Midterms · resolved market
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 30% by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05bfe2d38dd92d1a81a11e7961d423cde78d610a9caf936575bf1b4eba2ebbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x396f…7dcdbacked Yes | 1c | 15,222$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 10,800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 12c | 3,279$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 9c | 2,840$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +214.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,409$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed Yes | 13c | 1,303$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…46abbacked Yes | 9c | 1,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 854.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 3c | 596$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 60c | 400$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 319$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 305.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…1eeebacked Yes | 9c | 282.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 45c | 272$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 226$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 41c | 205.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 52c | 187$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 11c | 178.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 16c | 163$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 42c | 138.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 16c | 138$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 60c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 10c | 108.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 12c | 108.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 29c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…229abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 30% by March 31?this page
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 10% by March 31?No won
- 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.