Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc936d9c69b29c7eecbc862db10def06cba2b59fe073c21a1dcc2bd723ea54deb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 7c | 6,792$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.53 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 71c | 4,079$2,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 45c | 3,160$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 9c | 3,108$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,645$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.01 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed Yes | 7c | 2,485$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 4c | 2,356$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,183$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 2,066$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes | 19c | 1,892$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,800$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,575$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,508$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,507$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.88 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…a776backed Yes | 10c | 1,506$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…c94fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 40c | 1,384$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.39 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…b399backed Yes | 13c | 1,383$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 53c | 1,225$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.8 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…de95backed Yes | 13c | 1,135$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes | 20c | 1,070$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…f78fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…cf61backed Yes | 6c | 995.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…caa6backed Yes | 4c | 917.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 17c | 887.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 53c | 824.33$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 29c | 814.74$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 76c | 757.29$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.05 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 67c | 752.53$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.73 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 14c | 687.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1053…2f8ebacked No | 77c | 645.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…ce2cbacked No | 58c | 597.52$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…c9d0backed No | 60c | 591.63$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 582.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 42c | 567.85$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.54 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…d430backed No | 54c | 536.19$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 15c | 531.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.31 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 530.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5232…0ec5backed No | 54c | 528.55$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…01cabacked No | 76c | 525.64$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…edfabacked Yes | 23c | 522.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…50d4backed Yes | 3c | 515.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 52c | 513.32$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 70c | 507.08$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.05 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 20c | 502.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…6274backed No | 69c | 457.71$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…d382backed Yes | 12c | 450.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…3a18backed Yes | 3c | 435.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…49e7backed Yes | 6c | 402.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 20c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed No | 34c | 395.24$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +198%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…2ef0backed Yes | 68c | 394.46$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 5c | 392.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 75c | 391.81$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.83 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 42c | 377.24$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.9 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…69f5backed No | 68c | 377.22$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…c4b6backed No | 40c | 368.12$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed Yes | 56c | 364.49$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c5…d776backed Yes | 18c | 359.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…2facbacked Yes | 74c | 355.69$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 28c | 354.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 303.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…ce56backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd3…5e9abacked Yes | 5c | 294.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 72c | 287.46$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…403ebacked Yes | 6c | 281$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe6…f92fbacked Yes | 29c | 271.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 21c | 267.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…5f93backed Yes | 33c | 263.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…0a05backed No | 79c | 253.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 28c | 250.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.7 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 248.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 50c | 239.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 21c | 238.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c3…ef66backed Yes | 9c | 236.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 39c | 229.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 35c | 229.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…53b7backed No | 36c | 226.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…023abacked Yes | 34c | 224.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Yes | 9c | 224.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…7941backed No | 45c | 223.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…505ebacked Yes | 45c | 221.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 71c | 212.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 53c | 211.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…6375backed Yes | 13c | 210.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2180…dc32backed Yes | 72c | 206.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…066bbacked Yes | 22c | 206.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…46c8backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…0eb8backed No | 51c | 195.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 10c | 195.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…4b32backed Yes | 21c | 192.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 8c | 189.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908f…3ff4backed Yes | 30c | 186.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…d9cfbacked Yes | 54c | 184.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 16c | 183.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 13cpaid | +249.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 13c | 179.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.