TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,592 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes7c6,792$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.536028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c5,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes71c4,079$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+60.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes45c3,160$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes9c3,108$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.761735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes16c2,645$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.019115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd01f…06f5backed Yes7c2,485$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.81922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes4c2,356$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes10c2,183$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.892114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes2c2,066$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.393815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes19c1,892$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.89837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ad…b0cfbacked Yes13c1,800$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.241838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes23c1,575$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.222653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,508$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1614920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes17c1,507$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.888725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb330…a776backed Yes10c1,506$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6840%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes4c1,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60160%0 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes40c1,384$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.3926238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6203…b399backed Yes13c1,383$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.321833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No53c1,225$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.84759.6%28 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b07…de95backed Yes13c1,135$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes20c1,070$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3790…f78fbacked Yes3c1,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc1e…cf61backed Yes6c995.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b02…caa6backed Yes4c917.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes17c887.08$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.135341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No53c824.33$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes29c814.74$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.171154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes76c757.29$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.053625%9 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No67c752.53$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.7310241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes14c687.1$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.52540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1053…2f8ebacked No77c645.78$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x985b…ce2cbacked No58c597.52$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e3…c9d0backed No60c591.63$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes4c582.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes42c567.85$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.544022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d27…d430backed No54c536.19$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No15c531.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.317761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes11c530.47$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.67864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5232…0ec5backed No54c528.55$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ab…01cabacked No76c525.64$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0840…edfabacked Yes23c522.26$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec75…50d4backed Yes3c515.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes52c513.32$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.82254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No70c507.08$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.053865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes20c502.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed No69c457.71$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7980…d382backed Yes12c450.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9238…3a18backed Yes3c435.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x100c…49e7backed Yes6c402.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes20c400$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7380%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe585…eb65backed No34c395.24$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+198%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb080…2ef0backed Yes68c394.46$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+177.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes5c392.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.623417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No75c391.81$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.839475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes42c377.24$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.96443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…69f5backed No68c377.22$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…c4b6backed No40c368.12$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdea…a777backed Yes56c364.49$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67c5…d776backed Yes18c359.1$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28eb…2facbacked Yes74c355.69$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Yes28c354.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes8c303.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.133627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e40…ce56backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd3…5e9abacked Yes5c294.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb069…0e1cbacked No72c287.46$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e8…403ebacked Yes6c281$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbe6…f92fbacked Yes29c271.17$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.08742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a05…754abacked Yes21c267.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8143…5f93backed Yes33c263.97$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92be…0a05backed No79c253.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.44785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No28c250.66$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.712937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c248.19$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8741736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes50c239.28$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.431258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+60.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes21c238.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501414.3%2 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c3…ef66backed Yes9c236.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.66450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes39c229.96$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9717232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes35c229.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79f…53b7backed No36c226.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.97666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+98.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8f4…023abacked Yes34c224.92$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x829b…0473backed Yes9c224.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5144…7941backed No45c223.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e80…505ebacked Yes45c221.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No71c212.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4811741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No53c211.67$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.611050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa8…6375backed Yes13c210.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2180…dc32backed Yes72c206.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ddc…066bbacked Yes22c206.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5518…46c8backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+74.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663324.2%8 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc512…0eb8backed No51c195.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes10c195.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x315a…4b32backed Yes21c192.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes8c189.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.892429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908f…3ff4backed Yes30c186.83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7176…d9cfbacked Yes54c184.77$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5602…c12bbacked No16c183.3$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.641338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick13cpaid+249.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes13c179.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.762615.4%4 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.