TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team WEof Team WE, JD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$468,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$557,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,300 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe96f…ff4bbacked Team WE49c22,392$10,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,465.477838.5%30 W · 48 L-10.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team WE19c19,886$3,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,082.881,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team WE30c17,251$5,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,147.9153750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1887…f75dbacked JD Gaming42c13,303$5,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,567.7412945.7%59 W · 70 L-12.8wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed Team WE79c13,068$10,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.9140651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed JD Gaming76c11,946$9,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,04039964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8f…de20backed JD Gaming79c11,672$9,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,243.5112652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team WE19c10,972$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,922.221,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Team WE19c9,900$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,019.0359450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team WE20c9,746$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,830.6370456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Team WE22c9,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,989.981,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team WE50c8,317$4,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,119.831,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked JD Gaming58c8,260$4,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,832.0267552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc623…5808backed JD Gaming65c8,155$5,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,339.6812446%57 W · 67 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6130…a7a6backed Team WE30c7,710$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,365.457936.7%29 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team WE19c7,124$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,790.841,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team WE44c6,967$3,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,906.681143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team WE18c6,940$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,690.7354353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team WE35c6,109$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,997.189347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed Team WE58c6,047$3,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,556.2415356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked JD Gaming43c5,657$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45013333.8%45 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13b4…f4d9backed JD Gaming72c5,530$3,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99826062.7%163 W · 97 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team WE18c5,308$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,352.7782352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f47…d0a3backed JD Gaming1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50923.3%3 W · 89 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked Team WE45c4,622$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.2910748.6%52 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked JD Gaming64c4,273$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.9559558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team WE40c3,886$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,320.731,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Team WE41c3,347$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,976.2763546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea1…d143backed Team WE49c3,176$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.052552%13 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Team WE39c3,159$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,933.7441439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Team WE36c3,000$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.8417749.7%88 W · 89 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked JD Gaming52c2,800$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.542,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe4…e7b2backed JD Gaming74c2,580$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9005750.9%29 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ac5…bb92backed JD Gaming72c2,500$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80811439.5%45 W · 69 L-11.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9867…ea53backed Team WE19c2,330$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.2613752.6%72 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Team WE18c2,300$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88644335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10f9…9d91backed Team WE19c2,105$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.262045%9 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce15…43b7backed Team WE61c2,100$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.2812970.5%91 W · 38 L+16.5wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed JD Gaming62c2,037$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.6297427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked JD Gaming14c2,026$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3892354.3%501 W · 422 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b7…768cbacked Team WE77c2,000$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.5422355.6%124 W · 99 L-12.3wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb069…b4eabacked JD Gaming47c1,942$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.64761.7%29 W · 18 L+6.8wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Team WE16c1,829$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.1443539.5%172 W · 263 L-24.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team WE26c1,671$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.341,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Team WE30c1,650$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15524147.3%114 W · 127 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed JD Gaming46c1,646$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.123,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed JD Gaming47c1,546$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.521,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked JD Gaming78c1,534$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20052065.4%340 W · 180 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb845…ca23backed JD Gaming20c1,514$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007628.9%22 W · 54 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed Team WE17c1,511$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.5728734.1%98 W · 189 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked JD Gaming73c1,500$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.546650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Team WE39c1,489$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.9944120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked JD Gaming49c1,418$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.642,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team WE18c1,400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1481,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5393…384dbacked Team WE19c1,392$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.96046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked JD Gaming2c1,345$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.542,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed JD Gaming19c1,200$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2223,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed JD Gaming55c1,175$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.0286943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed Team WE32c1,164$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.6767276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed Team WE19c1,154$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.7821948.4%106 W · 113 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed JD Gaming40c1,132$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.4716346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed JD Gaming49c1,100$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.2833845.3%153 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Team WE71c1,074$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.5133456%187 W · 147 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team WE18c1,053$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.61,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed JD Gaming71c1,033$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.961,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team WE48c930.67$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.9550749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3f…f75dbacked JD Gaming73c927.56$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68019151.8%99 W · 92 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed JD Gaming63c921.74$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.672,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77fc…c044backed JD Gaming67c908.99$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team WE29c900$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63950242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team WE17c882.35$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.3543642.4%185 W · 251 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked JD Gaming58c882.15$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.0450155.3%277 W · 224 L-21.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Team WE71c873.09$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.9237754.1%204 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed JD Gaming69c867.52$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.3294144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team WE53c799.84$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.292,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f0…c55dbacked Team WE18c761.11$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.1111330.1%34 W · 79 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed JD Gaming80c750$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60045366%299 W · 154 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked JD Gaming32c721$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.662,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Team WE40c699.99$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4212646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x488e…ea2ebacked Team WE59c697$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.8317644.3%78 W · 98 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Team WE30c677.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.0543539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b1…cf86backed Team WE77c645.85$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.85988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick78cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Team WE47c632.72$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.4520348.8%99 W · 104 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d1…ae10backed Team WE14c604.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.893941%16 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed JD Gaming60c604.2$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.6785652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed JD Gaming21c600$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed JD Gaming50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012844.5%57 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4771…8055backed Team WE50c600$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3032979.3%23 W · 6 L+6.5wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+43%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Team WE18c600$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49242924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Team WE18c599.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.9964453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Team WE20c593.75$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.0310933%36 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Team WE18c555.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.5666947.8%320 W · 349 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked JD Gaming62c553.29$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.591,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked JD Gaming57c535.96$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.7867553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed JD Gaming20c523.08$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8876639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Team WE34c511.76$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.7653047.2%250 W · 280 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2051…f9f1backed JD Gaming79c503.52$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40049253.5%263 W · 229 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Team WE16c500$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4184924.5%12 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked JD Gaming2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102323.9%9 W · 223 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1276…0bf0backed JD Gaming55c496.75$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.76958%40 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.