Fed Rates · resolved market
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe280d5f7feebfaf9ecd5a4c2a336eb5431d96039718085f970636b02e17e8d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 16c | 12,997$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.68 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 70c | 10,000$6,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 30c | 7,766$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 3,214$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 2,473$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 25c | 2,337$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,199$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.19 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 66c | 1,054$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 5c | 950.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 820.31$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.75 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 67c | 724.48$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 78c | 713.61$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 20c | 638.45$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…137cbacked No | 64c | 620.48$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 33c | 600$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 27c | 584$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.22 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…f433backed Yes | 47c | 570.73$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 75c | 559.66$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.67 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed Yes | 14c | 452.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed Yes | 74c | 437.99$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes | 30c | 330.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 80c | 305.02$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21f…6922backed Yes | 4c | 285.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed Yes | 17c | 284.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 45c | 255.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 37c | 243.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 60c | 223.3$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 77c | 217$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 23c | 217$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 28c | 210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 69c | 209.09$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 12c | 203.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…312fbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…2c47backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 12c | 192.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 18c | 190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 188.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 50c | 180$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…6acabacked Yes | 12c | 166.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3793…170abacked Yes | 43c | 165.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…231fbacked Yes | 35c | 144.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…dcb3backed Yes | 24c | 135.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 133$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 38c | 130.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 78c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…63fdbacked Yes | 21c | 114.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 21c | 108.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…b5f2backed Yes | 48c | 103.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…0c7fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…4001backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed No | 78c | 99.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 17c | 93.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 92.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…b05abacked Yes | 36c | 72.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 77c | 65.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…3a98backed No | 65c | 65.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139c…b47dbacked Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Yes | 36c | 51.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0740…8a92backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…a400backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9f…7e8abacked No | 59c | 47.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed No | 50c | 46.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…e07cbacked No | 67c | 43.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…4c6fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked No | 78c | 39.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564a…af9bbacked Yes | 37c | 35.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 50c | 35.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 40c | 35.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 41c | 34.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 54c | 31.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 29.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 46c | 25.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed No | 78c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a2c2backed No | 78c | 22.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…3607backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.