Fed Rates · resolved market
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21450e1d9c581df3cb90cfb1da5694af1d425f62837a2f39bad7e8f4163cbc17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,161,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,128,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,161,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 1c | 449,865$3,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,435.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bf…3c31backed Yes | 8c | 61,709$5,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,155.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 7c | 45,876$3,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,023.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…4336backed Yes | 1c | 32,500$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…3dbbbacked Yes | 7c | 30,000$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 5c | 20,733$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…66d7backed Yes | 14c | 15,500$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…8417backed Yes | 7c | 12,937$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.77 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…1f47backed Yes | 10c | 9,117$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 14c | 8,989$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed Yes | 6c | 8,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked Yes | 9c | 6,666$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 5c | 6,421$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 5,697$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 6c | 5,455$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 10c | 5,175$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 3c | 4,621$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,804$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 16c | 3,566$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.96 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 10c | 3,072$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,959$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90fa…cebdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,813$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 8c | 2,798$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b5…a045backed Yes | 4c | 2,524$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19d…da02backed Yes | 5c | 2,507$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d6…8b36backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,447$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 9c | 2,278$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6a…d67bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,202$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 1c | 2,030$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…4c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 4c | 1,799$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 3c | 1,790$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…0031backed Yes | 7c | 1,764$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ae…051cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…e558backed Yes | 4c | 1,497$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,362$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,330$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,178$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 1,148$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…2166backed Yes | 5c | 1,061$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…716bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,020$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6c…00b9backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…9e8dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 944.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 890.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 10c | 819.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 782.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x532a…d45abacked Yes | 3c | 741.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 696.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 13c | 650.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…728ebacked Yes | 3c | 610.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 563.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 15c | 556.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 555$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 6c | 524.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…aa73backed Yes | 4c | 512.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 3c | 494.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x953b…b914backed Yes | 9c | 479.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ee…de75backed Yes | 18c | 473.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83db…d78fbacked Yes | 7c | 470$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 24c | 453.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 75c | 438.85$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 4c | 435.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…ec46backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a59…f59cbacked Yes | 8c | 385.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4783…dc2cbacked Yes | 13c | 333.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 6c | 309.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 55c | 304.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419f…e853backed Yes | 6c | 269.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed Yes | 18c | 253.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…95cabacked Yes | 9c | 202.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…889bbacked Yes | 13c | 201.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4a…07fbbacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…07edbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…c96fbacked Yes | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…38b8backed Yes | 10c | 176.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 143.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d18…c434backed Yes | 11c | 134.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8d…4f17backed No | 76c | 131.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 121$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fe…b16ebacked Yes | 10c | 113.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes | 9c | 112.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 11c | 105.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 76c | 104.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…bdc2backed Yes | 13c | 100.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…d2ddbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…8af5backed Yes | 13c | 98.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed No | 71c | 87.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa8…9c41backed Yes | 12c | 86.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90c…0d37backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…f7adbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…648abacked Yes | 51c | 48.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…ae11backed No | 79c | 31.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?this page
- Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >10% by Feb 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.