Fed Rates · resolved market
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >10% by Feb 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd56256d77ad8fae80e0ed39cbbf1f5aa14b6f252a39bb1130bf6444caed650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $873,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $681,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $873,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91bf…3c31backed Yes | 2c | 162,275$3,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,631.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…22d5backed Yes | 2c | 89,865$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…66d7backed Yes | 4c | 83,257$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,075.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…8417backed Yes | 0c | 55,239$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…3dbbbacked Yes | 3c | 46,055$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed Yes | 3c | 37,021$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 1c | 29,000$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 3c | 27,837$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 2c | 23,426$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…4c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 21,283$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…1cf9backed Yes | 2c | 19,795$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…1f47backed Yes | 3c | 19,500$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked Yes | 4c | 17,818$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…6c7cbacked Yes | 2c | 16,479$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6a…d67bbacked Yes | 4c | 16,064$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 6c | 10,438$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 6,720$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…0031backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 1c | 4,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa8…9c41backed Yes | 3c | 4,262$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…e558backed Yes | 1c | 4,115$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…d339backed Yes | 4c | 2,784$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…2851backed Yes | 4c | 2,635$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…4336backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c2…d91ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,917$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed Yes | 3c | 1,505$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…8a0dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,392$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 2c | 1,227$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 1,216$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,163$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…359dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5812…2b4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,098$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953b…b914backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ee…de75backed Yes | 4c | 885.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Yes | 4c | 857.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…c835backed Yes | 5c | 809.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…ed24backed Yes | 3c | 746.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750c…2fe3backed Yes | 3c | 746.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb210…728ebacked Yes | 2c | 651.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 4c | 524.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +469.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe21f…6922backed Yes | 3c | 480.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…8601backed Yes | 2c | 418.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Yes | 3c | 417.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…95cabacked Yes | 5c | 407.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fca…1ff7backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 386.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed Yes | 4c | 301.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3152…2ef1backed Yes | 4c | 250.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >10% by Feb 20?this page
- Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.