TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x71b6…ae11

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: CS2, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 53 out of 100; worst AI at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2548%12 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$10.21
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.11
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$8.79
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.01
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$2.98
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.34
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.21
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+78%+$29.65
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.65
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$19.74
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.37
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$17.62
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.9
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$9.69
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+129.9%+$29.87
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.3
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$7.76
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+122.2%+$19.18
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$17.14
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+231.8%+$77.69
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+28.9%+$5.22
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$23.55
All 25 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.44
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$40.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+116.4%+$29.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$9.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+266.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+266.3%+$35.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+56.3%+$5.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$7.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+44.9%+$22.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$8.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+26.4%+$6.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSV win on 2026-02-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.