TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x955c…990fbacked Yes72c23,616$17,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,598.137157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No35c17,046$6,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,036.6917751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes72c12,801$9,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,637.6518746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No26c8,767$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.6611924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No27c7,971$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.6129642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed No6c6,521$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.171520%3 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No8c5,567$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.7932639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked No37c4,475$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.71957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No24c4,085$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.878225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes48c4,024$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.87538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes49c3,446$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.613243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No31c3,101$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.0910339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes71c3,069$2,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.423639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes64c2,553$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.6112631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No26c2,349$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.165621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No13c2,018$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3629423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb94c…b5b5backed No37c1,825$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.634746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes58c1,758$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.7129735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No13c1,641$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.272686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked No17c1,337$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.2123321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes60c1,000$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.23423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No14c1,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No25c997$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.259434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab21…c521backed Yes75c997$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.252263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd9…1024backed Yes61c966.43$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.895234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes75c945.58$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.071838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes58c915.97$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.454429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No41c800$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2310549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c729$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0210645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No24c707.53$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7112442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes55c633$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.782751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No15c611.36$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.955147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes56c600$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.42729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes63c552.86$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.063568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No37c543$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.56747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No33c493.01$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.717537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed Yes56c458.71$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.333540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No36c432.25$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.533545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c430.67$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3616737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes70c420.99$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.72917.2%5 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8aac…309abacked Yes63c420.03$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.242138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No39c414.18$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.558638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3ab…300abacked No24c402.63$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.051118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No30c390.21$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.481,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No23c371.13$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8410436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No49c365.02$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.861258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes74c363.55$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.249851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No31c360.64$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes74c350$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.513440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No27c343.23$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3710042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes67c339.73$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6510139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes68c317.92$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1913635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes77c315.9$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-83.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf508…30a5backed Yes64c310.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.211855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No31c284.22$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.365339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec39…50acbacked No24c269.1$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No43c254.91$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.066642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes67c249.99$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.517540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed No44c246.39$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3211633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed No38c239.98$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.92633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No24c230.81$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1116015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No13c215$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.48653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes69c209.92$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.213250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No32c205$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.496855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes69c202.59$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8413034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9413534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb401…df2abacked Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c22…444cbacked No18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed No36c193.57$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615c…5b46backed No8c192.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed Yes57c191.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.93925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…e223backed No25c187.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No26c186.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.093557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed No28c181.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.113831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes55c172$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb0…bd65backed No30c169.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.271838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No9c165$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.216446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02fe…5af0backed No18c158$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.98955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a14…ad9ebacked No13c143.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No27c136.65$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.321811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1241…081bbacked Yes65c133.13$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.61650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424c…82b5backed No27c130.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes68c126.02$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.842536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f3…8f96backed Yes60c125.66$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd8a…9bf9backed No57c104.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes53c104.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.022236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2711625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.93129%9 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c96.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7914337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a68…33bfbacked No26c91.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed No12c90.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8813119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes64c84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.475234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No24c83.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.983542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes51c82$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.181560%9 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+119.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7472…c267backed Yes61c81.06$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes58c77.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4732814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No25c77.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.671643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No41c76.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.528442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44bc…ddb3backed Yes73c72.13$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.414100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.