Movies · resolved market
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcadd206c6962f992cd08a100a138ab1f9dc98efc4cecdf150efb7050303f00ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 67c | 10,802$7,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,524.87 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 21c | 6,171$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.22 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 34c | 6,067$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.52 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 16c | 5,560$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.25 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,288$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.53 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 36c | 5,095$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.01 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 4,826$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 39c | 4,303$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 68c | 3,371$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.1 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 2,739$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.33 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 51c | 1,490$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.71 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 16c | 1,240$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.16 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,154$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.41 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 902.41$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 57c | 901.26$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 32c | 888.43$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.44 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 878.4$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.4 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 811.56$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.71 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 24c | 773.27$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 3c | 676.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 16c | 599.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 38c | 548.04$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.42 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 543$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.38 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 505.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 493.27$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.12 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 490.48$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.05 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 432.39$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.98 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 425$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 41c | 404.04$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 32c | 389.73$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 79c | 360.64$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb043…9d41backed Yes | 4c | 325.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 51c | 321$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.66 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 13c | 316.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 310$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 300.6$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 4c | 258.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 55c | 254.91$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.87 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 62c | 228.66$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 16c | 213.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 200.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 18c | 194.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…db96backed Yes | 12c | 185$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 19c | 169.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 12c | 167.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 11c | 162$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 12c | 161.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 7c | 152.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 69c | 137.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 18c | 131.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fb…7f7bbacked Yes | 53c | 112.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 109.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 85.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 27c | 85.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 83.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 82.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 79.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 63c | 78.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 77.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 68.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…081bbacked Yes | 45c | 33.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…50acbacked No | 68c | 24.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…d8d8backed No | 72c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…8b26backed No | 61c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m?this page
- Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?Yes won
- Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 44m?No won
- Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.