Movies · resolved market
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7abff4a0904d7fab165ea2a2f7d3af2a87307136862bc63e30626367b098f397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 19c | 27,283$5,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,088.57 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…7c8cbacked Yes | 1c | 16,573$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 10c | 11,738$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.87 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b5…9e1cbacked Yes | 3c | 10,077$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,345$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.12 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 22c | 9,303$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.84 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed Yes | 1c | 8,700$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 11c | 8,083$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.67 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…35cebacked No | 80c | 7,413$5,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 12c | 7,051$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.81 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 7,012$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 12c | 6,353$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.99 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 8c | 4,361$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.92 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…02dfbacked Yes | 4c | 4,284$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…afc1backed Yes | 1c | 3,917$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,830$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…67f5backed Yes | 1c | 3,606$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…fff3backed Yes | 1c | 3,601$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,464$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 79c | 3,118$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.46 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,792$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.56 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…e32abacked Yes | 4c | 2,397$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 76c | 2,391$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.52 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 10c | 2,294$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.97 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,114$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,065$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d8…4147backed Yes | 1c | 2,013$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 14c | 1,834$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.3 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,820$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 1,777$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 11c | 1,670$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.11 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 16c | 1,657$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.93 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked Yes | 3c | 1,656$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,597$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 1c | 1,183$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 71c | 1,183$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.68 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 21c | 899.97$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.39 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 6c | 899.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 799.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…3da3backed Yes | 9c | 794.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 720.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 19c | 700$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed Yes | 8c | 639.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…c782backed Yes | 6c | 598.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 578.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 16c | 561.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 77c | 538$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 21c | 446$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 16c | 431.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 431.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 25c | 390.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 19c | 336.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 10c | 315.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 14c | 313.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 10c | 290.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 261$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 8c | 253$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 5c | 231.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed Yes | 13c | 229.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 9c | 221.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 19c | 217.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 14c | 217.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7752…4df4backed Yes | 5c | 214.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed Yes | 16c | 201.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…084abacked Yes | 5c | 191.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 190$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 10c | 184$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 78c | 177.03$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 18c | 166.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 21c | 156.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked Yes | 9c | 147.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 11c | 139.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be2…e5fdbacked Yes | 26c | 128.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 74c | 127.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 9c | 125.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 16c | 122.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…b7c3backed Yes | 9c | 116.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 16c | 106.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 104.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed Yes | 13c | 93.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 86.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa297…6a6ebacked Yes | 26c | 78.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 72.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…1d5abacked Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 62.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?this page
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?Yes won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 122m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.