TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$128,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No38c12,050$4,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,524.917751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b77…bbbcbacked No0c11,109$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No7c8,378$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.631618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes55c7,854$4,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,563.1316350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed No1c7,639$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8313.2%1 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No27c7,407$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,986.694843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes70c5,864$4,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.077538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes44c5,743$2,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,204.244746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes55c5,279$2,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,374.7929642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No23c4,290$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.815215.4%8 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No32c4,004$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.4811924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No1c3,473$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.76747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Yes56c2,652$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.142050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes46c2,410$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.9929735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No54c2,406$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.3532639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed No1c2,234$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No56c2,230$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.311822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No47c2,123$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.0510339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes51c2,001$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.5213635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes51c1,955$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.038247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4155…35cebacked No36c1,759$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.282441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b48…2dd0backed No1c1,693$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes77c1,457$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.934151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No25c1,450$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.484238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,232$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.491,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7545…02dfbacked No2c1,229$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No39c1,173$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.8810139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No36c1,153$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.3816737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No14c1,072$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.474429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No15c1,038$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8511240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed No7c1,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.763116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes50c984.08$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.097860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No33c974$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.7512442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes56c882.58$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.8811633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes60c757.95$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.4416040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No32c745$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9510645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes43c712.86$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.3623321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1b…c826backed No7c704.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504131.7%13 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb355…f149backed Yes74c600$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes49c533$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.1710549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No34c513.74$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3510436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No42c505.2$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9613440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e90…1c09backed No20c501.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes79c478.81$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.612917.2%5 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No40c467.36$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.19951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1247328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x681b…8a5abacked No22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No58c393.47$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.124930.6%15 W · 34 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No28c380.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6613034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes42c368$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+125.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes76c355.9$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4636538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No45c327.47$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.761844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes45c303.98$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.835925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes47c300.66$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.1426431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.2932814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c292.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.412042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf211…669bbacked Yes49c280$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No38c260.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.777537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x939d…f0f0backed Yes43c249.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.53330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked No43c243$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8536…3da3backed Yes73c238.86$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.511346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dba…d397backed No45c237$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.26633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+50%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes78c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe739…0c48backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No45c192.52$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.256446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No8c180.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c180.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.898351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f70…312bbacked No9c172.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.83148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No56c164.29$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.192356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80de…2e87backed Yes66c160$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked No55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No70c152$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.648638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes24c150$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No50c144$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.388442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No55c138$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.784436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No35c123$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.542445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes28c110.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4412936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes49c109.98$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.698461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes64c109.96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.966137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes58c109$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.952250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…1535backed Yes56c107.58$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.341241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No33c107$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.684440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes46c100.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0112240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c1…de09backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d9b…085ebacked Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes66c98.62$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8213820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes74c96.9$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.513542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No41c95.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.124626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes26c91.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.114936.7%18 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No22c90.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.953046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…d3fdbacked Yes43c87.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No55c86.03$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.463636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x498f…ec61backed Yes38c77.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.163033.3%10 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabf…afd2backed No54c76.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0891…4874backed Yes61c67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.