Movies · resolved market
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1443e0183e6d60532402dfd8c32589432f679bc3079f511351ccb7e3e1b43deb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 2c | 21,131$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.6 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 35c | 20,348$7,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,154.42 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 18,420$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 3c | 17,024$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.62 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 66c | 15,267$10,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,138.29 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 31c | 12,865$3,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,964.43 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 31c | 11,788$3,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,706.42 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 71c | 10,887$7,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,201.62 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 0c | 6,684$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 6,351$4,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.94 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 36c | 5,887$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.95 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…35cebacked Yes | 42c | 5,258$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 60c | 5,178$3,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.76 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked Yes | 22c | 4,181$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 71c | 3,591$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.18 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 58c | 2,965$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.66 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 69c | 2,958$2,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.97 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,543$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.83 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,530$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.23 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,457$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.48 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed Yes | 0c | 2,410$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 2,143$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed No | 71c | 1,983$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.43 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 10c | 1,838$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 45c | 1,802$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.72 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…7c09backed Yes | 3c | 1,512$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b5…e5a4backed Yes | 38c | 1,509$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 63c | 1,431$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.27 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 25c | 1,341$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.98 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 65c | 1,338$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.93 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked No | 74c | 1,299$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,214$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 29c | 1,137$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.61 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,080$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.82 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928f…9a88backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 987.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 63c | 982.56$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.65 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed No | 67c | 933.87$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.51 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 72c | 900$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 18c | 898.96$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 12c | 888.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…1535backed Yes | 45c | 885.3$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 856$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.48 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a69…2775backed Yes | 52c | 834.33$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 19c | 834.01$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.72 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 41c | 763.96$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.77 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…c782backed Yes | 3c | 716.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 66c | 698.48$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.21 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 10c | 679.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 667.6$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.77 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 650$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.5 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…323ebacked Yes | 2c | 626.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 2c | 610.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 74c | 573.33$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 520$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…3da3backed No | 75c | 518.2$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 61c | 516.25$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.15 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…669bbacked Yes | 32c | 511$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 480.57$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 470$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.42 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…abfbbacked No | 73c | 469.99$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed No | 73c | 431$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 3c | 425.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 16c | 416.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 30c | 402.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 38c | 375.27$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 69c | 362$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 4c | 359$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 33c | 328.75$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 323.72$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 71c | 299.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 31c | 287.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 28c | 285$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 74c | 280$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…453ebacked Yes | 5c | 274.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 255.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 8c | 251.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 42c | 246.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 241.87$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked No | 62c | 237.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…0009backed Yes | 22c | 226.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 69c | 226$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed No | 69c | 204$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 61c | 198$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 178.47$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…73bfbacked Yes | 55c | 176.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 65c | 175$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 170$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 30c | 168.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128c…ad12backed No | 71c | 166$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 46c | 162.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 158.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 155.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed No | 59c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?this page
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 122m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?Yes won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 122m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.