Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d019f06ed90710a2defd8d71224a1d36a30293aeb59d38ce428c4e6bb55d366

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $105,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $126,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,309 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf872…9b11backed Yes	24c	18,073$4,284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,788.32	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	43c	14,485$6,205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,280.2	115	22.6%26 W · 89 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No	6c	8,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	151	50.3%76 W · 75 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	61c	5,031$3,091 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,940.41	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	76c	4,776$3,621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,621.4	75	34.7%26 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes	25c	3,175$792 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,383.82	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	+9.3wins	+0.12per pick	37cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No	54c	2,315$1,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,253.5	147	29.9%44 W · 103 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes	76c	2,243$1,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.04	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	68cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2d6…4efabacked Yes	21c	1,502$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,188.49	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.79per pick	21cpaid	+379.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No	72c	1,498$1,078 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,078.27	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	+7.6wins	+0.14per pick	37cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	61c	1,396$847 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$847.02	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No	75c	954$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.76	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No	65c	953.46$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.39	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No	29c	876.28$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.68	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+9.0wins	+0.34per pick	23cpaid	+138.6%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes	10c	836.54$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$755.53	180	41.1%74 W · 106 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	62c	832.55$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.15	171	40.4%69 W · 102 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf713…fdebbacked No	27c	654.71$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	14c	626$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538.28	210	33.3%70 W · 140 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	69c	606.91$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.2	211	61.1%129 W · 82 L	+9.0wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	30c	594.81$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.54	136	25.7%35 W · 101 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-30%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes	51c	569.71$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.46	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-20%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No	57c	533.2$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.69	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed Yes	23c	501.05$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.6	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+3.1wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes	27c	482.01$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.08	228	48.7%111 W · 117 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	25c	428$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.36	109	47.7%52 W · 57 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No	56c	417.61$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.79	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No	75c	401$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.96	49	49%24 W · 25 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes	9c	365.12$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.83	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+6.6wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No	48c	333.38$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.24	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No	45c	293.32$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.66	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No	8c	285.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	17cpaid	+99.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No	75c	285$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.47	107	39.3%42 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	80c	278$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.82	248	61.7%153 W · 95 L	+24.3wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	32c	275.5$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.24	334	21.9%73 W · 261 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No	61c	269.67$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.1	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No	22c	249.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No	31c	247.07$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.35	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed No	32c	242.27$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.88	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.23per pick	35cpaid	-75%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No	39c	212.69$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.76	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes	15c	204$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.5	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	80c	200$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	244	33.2%81 W · 163 L	+11.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	63c	181.5$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.17	211	55.9%118 W · 93 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No	15c	180$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No	76c	166.4$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.47	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	9c	153$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	182	3.8%7 W · 175 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes	11c	153$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.02	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	22c	149$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.13	494	11.5%57 W · 437 L	-17.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No	24c	141.97$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.68	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes	19c	132.28$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.28	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+101.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes	8c	124.77$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.36	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+144%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No	38c	116.54$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.81	51	37.3%19 W · 32 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No	55c	110.93$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.34	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No	74c	108$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.32	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0115…ac79backed Yes	69c	106.6$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.44	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes	18c	100$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.6	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	59c	99.12$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.21	90	10%9 W · 81 L	-20.0wins	-0.22per pick	32cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x015d…7bc7backed No	34c	89.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	62c	87.47$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.28	135	46.7%63 W · 72 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed No	36c	86.86$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	22c	83.45$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.21	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No	51c	81.7$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.31	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-19%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4056…c4f1backed No	77c	81.64$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	71cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	16c	80.7$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.49	183	10.4%19 W · 164 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c67…34f1backed No	36c	74.44$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	16c	71.04$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.37	205	42%86 W · 119 L	-11.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes	22c	70$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.6	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82e1…ae66backed No	32c	60.49$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.36	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+172.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No	78c	58.33$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.72	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes	80c	54.58$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.18	64	32.8%21 W · 43 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No	54c	51.91$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.13	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	59cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5691…c593backed No	38c	51.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes	56c	50.63$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No	79c	50$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.25	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x634b…b425backed No	75c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.75per pick	75cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	68c	49.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.24	669	14.8%99 W · 570 L	-105.6wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked No	36c	49.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.89	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04b7…dbaabacked Yes	31c	48.11$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.11	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7747…fe40backed No	75c	46.6$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No	39c	44.74$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	52	55.8%29 W · 23 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No	33c	42.84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No	47c	32.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.21per pick	38cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	72c	30$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.64	87	40.2%35 W · 52 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No	80c	29.02$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No	72c	28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6401…ecbfbacked No	43c	27.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8862…bbf5backed No	75c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	23	78.3%18 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	73cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7088…0086backed No	71c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No	72c	19.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked No	66c	18.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	67cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8634…1b5bbacked No	78c	15.8$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.37per pick	77cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8278…ec8cbacked No	76c	14.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	70cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?this page
Will Adam Steen win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Brad Sherman win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Eddie Andrews win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?No won
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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