AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d2088f78bdd3142237c5b04c5d00d0fea824e4cfaffeae738a119a8853bbd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 21c | 2,194$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.36 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…54c8backed No | 79c | 1,400$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 21c | 1,150$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 29c | 959.63$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.4 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 16c | 734.58$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…c537backed No | 68c | 687.96$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc152…361ebacked No | 76c | 550.82$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 78c | 434.05$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3095backed No | 65c | 393.54$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 18c | 328.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Yes | 16c | 326.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked No | 60c | 239.97$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 238.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 207.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 9c | 186.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 41c | 178.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 39c | 163.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 162.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…5b15backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5e…7972backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes | 28c | 146.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked No | 67c | 135.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 34c | 129.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1571…76e8backed No | 67c | 116.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 34c | 112.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…ae51backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bd…215fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0fbdbacked No | 66c | 98.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed No | 62c | 97.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 32c | 68.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 27c | 66.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba85…61c3backed No | 63c | 57.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…6ffebacked Yes | 27c | 56.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b1…3968backed No | 77c | 38.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3b…2815backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb3…d024backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…5fa7backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ChatGPT Outage by March 27?this page
- ChatGPT Outage by April 10?Yes won
- ChatGPT Outage by April 3?Yes won
- ChatGPT Outage by March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.