AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8cb51e4844cdbeec964e918d43d5223972775e73f3c85d8a7b08e1dccf99e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,403 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 6c | 2,394$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.74 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes | 7c | 513.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 8c | 485.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 6c | 400.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 311.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed Yes | 11c | 299.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 10c | 170.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 151.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 23c | 147.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 105.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…f9d0backed Yes | 32c | 101.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 12c | 93.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 14c | 90.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked No | 67c | 69.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 18c | 66.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ChatGPT Outage by March 20?this page
- ChatGPT Outage by April 10?Yes won
- ChatGPT Outage by April 3?Yes won
- ChatGPT Outage by March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.