AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf6db2e82a100a06e9b1275443307f7f1e9fdbed887a2094bdba95568c5b63b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 0c | 6,971$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 74c | 5,088$3,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,758.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…c345backed Yes | 74c | 2,867$2,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 15c | 2,784$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.6 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 23c | 1,407$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.71 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 61c | 1,132$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.01 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 29c | 957.95$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 20c | 810.1$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.84 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 25c | 765.95$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.44 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 747.57$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.89 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1571…76e8backed No | 46c | 733.81$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 41c | 659.1$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…89f6backed Yes | 23c | 585$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +120%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 574.22$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.86 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked No | 67c | 500.61$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…641bbacked No | 64c | 469.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 13c | 396.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 37c | 389.89$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 381.43$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.16 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 30c | 365.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…051bbacked Yes | 68c | 359.57$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…7468backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…b428backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…eb0fbacked Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…06a5backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…74e7backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…741bbacked Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…3dfcbacked Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…b994backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…db75backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 11c | 277.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.47 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…d4a0backed Yes | 23c | 277.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…5031backed No | 80c | 261.05$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes | 18c | 257.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 19c | 230.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 204.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.44 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 35c | 193.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…079ebacked No | 66c | 153$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…51b0backed No | 66c | 152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…3494backed No | 66c | 152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…0982backed No | 66c | 152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…9a06backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…b77ebacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…938fbacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791c…16cfbacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…9c0fbacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf5…26bcbacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…cb92backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef8…d8b2backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…9a23backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047d…f313backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637c…f802backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 39c | 147$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 19c | 142.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a60backed No | 66c | 141$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 59c | 140.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8899…a121backed No | 66c | 138$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 27c | 136.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc152…361ebacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…973cbacked Yes | 25c | 127.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +294.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 30c | 124$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 31c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 118.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 113.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…aedcbacked No | 63c | 110$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…5b15backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…2a38backed No | 66c | 97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 26c | 96.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 78.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de3…5753backed No | 67c | 73.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee52…b2bdbacked Yes | 28c | 60.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +254.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 74c | 58.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 46c | 52.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 72c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…035abacked No | 80c | 46.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb156…8730backed Yes | 26c | 46.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…5f34backed Yes | 31c | 41.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +189.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a17…a032backed No | 80c | 37.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 30c | 35.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 68c | 34.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 53c | 33.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 78c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 69c | 32.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…b12ebacked No | 76c | 26.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 47c | 22.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 21.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 72c | 20.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ChatGPT Outage by April 3?this page
- ChatGPT Outage by April 10?Yes won
- ChatGPT Outage by March 20?No won
- ChatGPT Outage by March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.