TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,212

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe154…0b7fbacked No0c8,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3148…bc30backed Yes79c6,334$4,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.73450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No55c3,251$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.9217929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes55c2,816$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.8714854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No17c1,994$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.7250130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No32c1,933$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.8217740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked No1c1,474$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb65…172cbacked No31c1,367$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.314151.2%21 W · 20 L+6.1wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+30.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b2c…7756backed Yes42c1,135$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.342055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3532…663abacked No46c1,081$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.051838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+129.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87a8…445cbacked No34c932.15$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.563420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No15c911.72$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7630649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes64c835.37$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.5615740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No7c799.65$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2613419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed Yes65c790.51$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.534126.8%11 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…f557backed Yes68c736.14$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.14875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+72.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No15c704$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5242311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed Yes62c701.22$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.176456.3%36 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x738b…6dc9backed Yes71c691.75$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.8610246.1%47 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No17c653.94$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2911818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No13c586.98$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9417449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c561.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8415625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb630…f3e6backed No15c502.83$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.634035%14 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8774…baf4backed Yes45c500$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+191.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No9c454.63$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.373810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed No13c451.46$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.87821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes63c449.43$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.347150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed No16c415$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.942725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed No55c410.82$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.356944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c405$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.584928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes53c400$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.228734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No22c387.82$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.835961%36 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9842…00d7backed Yes61c379.9$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.77742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No3c375$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4711329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No14c363.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes68c357.44$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.57243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No26c354.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3425843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked Yes63c319.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.01287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-88.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a8…fb82backed No21c303.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.514242.9%18 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No19c300.78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4921333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4873…b9c2backed No14c293.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413225%8 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No36c271.4$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9214854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa048…0250backed Yes80c257.73$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.73450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b5…cd01backed No40c251.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.751245.6%7 W · 117 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No12c246.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed No16c230.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.733969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No10c230.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9812616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed No18c227.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0313430.6%41 W · 93 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdab…8aeabacked Yes60c227.48$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0e3…f58dbacked Yes64c220.62$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.59728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-56.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.88248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes62c200$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773650%18 W · 18 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+9.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9256…5bcebacked Yes61c196.54$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No35c178.78$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7133741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No20c172.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1610321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df0…0de7backed Yes63c167.47$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.853966.7%26 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes75c166.68$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2977636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfa3…a5c8backed Yes61c163.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes59c150.06$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.867560%45 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed No7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.959524.2%23 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes68c147.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8216417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No31c136.12$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2911418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a7e…eda0backed Yes75c135.77$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.943050%15 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No36c129.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ecb…fb4dbacked Yes55c120.53$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1746…515fbacked No26c120$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.963455.9%19 W · 15 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+29.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5ff4…9cdcbacked Yes60c117.13$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.132254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27a0…cd28backed No26c113.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa565…25a3backed No10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No32c105$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.79335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8686…64f5backed No16c103$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.48850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabe2…7f9fbacked No12c102$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e6b…a2c5backed No10c102$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3912040%48 W · 72 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x05c8…a2f8backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196437.5%24 W · 40 L+8.3wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28f6…2d3bbacked No49c99.53$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes69c99.37$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2612544%55 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30b2…b012backed No10c99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d84…2c67backed No12c98.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b6d…8eafbacked Yes71c97.88$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.151258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes60c91.83$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.639621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7aa8…5909backed No38c91.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.171225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No43c90.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.017268.1%49 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No34c88.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6724839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes45c88.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3112023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed Yes50c86.71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.367350.7%37 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ac…c00fbacked Yes61c82.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed Yes51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.043348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4712…99d1backed No17c80$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.793847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x909f…431abacked Yes64c77.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.812166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No48c77.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.376246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c13…ce0ebacked No39c76.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.02639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x871f…5885backed No36c73.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3340%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d26…f91dbacked Yes70c71.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.491435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe295…55b3backed No21c69.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.562748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes72c67.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.547722.1%17 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.