Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a6e8f321e3cfc98ac4cb3e00be22a34f3fc9daf185cb353d63000f7f2a7ca0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 8,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3148…bc30backed Yes | 79c | 6,334$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 55c | 3,251$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.92 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 55c | 2,816$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.87 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 17c | 1,994$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.72 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 32c | 1,933$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.82 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked No | 1c | 1,474$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…172cbacked No | 31c | 1,367$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.31 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…7756backed Yes | 42c | 1,135$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.34 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…663abacked No | 46c | 1,081$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked No | 34c | 932.15$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.56 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 911.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 64c | 835.37$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.56 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 7c | 799.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 65c | 790.51$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.53 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed Yes | 68c | 736.14$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 704$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 62c | 701.22$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.17 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 71c | 691.75$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.86 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 17c | 653.94$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 13c | 586.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 561.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 15c | 502.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…baf4backed Yes | 45c | 500$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 9c | 454.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 13c | 451.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 63c | 449.43$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.34 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 16c | 415$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed No | 55c | 410.82$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.35 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 405$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 53c | 400$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 22c | 387.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…00d7backed Yes | 61c | 379.9$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 3c | 375$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 14c | 363.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes | 68c | 357.44$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 26c | 354.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked Yes | 63c | 319.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.01 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 21c | 303.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 19c | 300.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed No | 14c | 293.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 36c | 271.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed Yes | 80c | 257.73$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…cd01backed No | 40c | 251.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 246.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed No | 16c | 230.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 10c | 230.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 18c | 227.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…8aeabacked Yes | 60c | 227.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…f58dbacked Yes | 64c | 220.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…5bcebacked Yes | 61c | 196.54$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 35c | 178.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 20c | 172.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…0de7backed Yes | 63c | 167.47$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 166.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…a5c8backed Yes | 61c | 163.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 150.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 68c | 147.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 31c | 136.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…eda0backed Yes | 75c | 135.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 129.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…fb4dbacked Yes | 55c | 120.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…515fbacked No | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff4…9cdcbacked Yes | 60c | 117.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cd28backed No | 26c | 113.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…25a3backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 32c | 105$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8686…64f5backed No | 16c | 103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe2…7f9fbacked No | 12c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6b…a2c5backed No | 10c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…2d3bbacked No | 49c | 99.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 69c | 99.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…b012backed No | 10c | 99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed No | 12c | 98.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…8eafbacked Yes | 71c | 97.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 60c | 91.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5909backed No | 38c | 91.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 43c | 90.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 34c | 88.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 45c | 88.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 50c | 86.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…c00fbacked Yes | 61c | 82.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…99d1backed No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…431abacked Yes | 64c | 77.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 48c | 77.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 39c | 76.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…5885backed No | 36c | 73.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…f91dbacked Yes | 70c | 71.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…55b3backed No | 21c | 69.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 72c | 67.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.