Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b981427a63c7b52235eeee6b823f2d865c303219b194a585c95431bb009ee3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 74c | 187.89$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d0…0647backed No | 51c | 187.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 19c | 166.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7929…5d2cbacked Yes | 65c | 154.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…ca44backed Yes | 67c | 148.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 79c | 144.09$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebc…da3cbacked No | 62c | 143.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 37c | 107.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed No | 35c | 87.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 27c | 80.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 31c | 61.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea9…c8d1backed No | 63c | 27.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…70c7backed Yes | 74c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…8091backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.