Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x705bc966a97d10bb9ceea5ffe8997ec12a30df3e5c6a82995f0606e37fc3970b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,026 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 49c | 1,965$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 1,351$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 48c | 982$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.7 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 25c | 740.96$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.06 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 51c | 699$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 2c | 677.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 51c | 644$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 51c | 622$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 15c | 524.41$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 13c | 516.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.29 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 55c | 467.61$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 335.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed No | 70c | 286.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5612…a001backed Yes | 18c | 279.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed Yes | 10c | 245.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 232.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 200.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 47c | 200.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 47c | 183.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 163$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 155.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff1c…9028backed No | 78c | 109.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 13c | 107.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…5f94backed Yes | 50c | 95.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20f…2523backed No | 50c | 95.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 13c | 91.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 91.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3624…9a2ebacked No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…b3dcbacked Yes | 50c | 89.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691c…0a40backed No | 50c | 89.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…5fabbacked Yes | 50c | 89.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 12c | 87.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…36d3backed Yes | 50c | 85.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…f6cbbacked No | 50c | 85.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd563…63a7backed Yes | 50c | 85.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…e690backed No | 50c | 85.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1116…d4afbacked No | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…33f4backed Yes | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…7a46backed No | 50c | 80.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…de7ebacked Yes | 50c | 80.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…43c3backed No | 50c | 80.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…3f98backed Yes | 50c | 80.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…3528backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba85…584fbacked No | 50c | 79.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd3…377dbacked Yes | 50c | 79.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…b298backed Yes | 50c | 79.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c5…bac8backed No | 50c | 79.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 16c | 78.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…4af7backed Yes | 75c | 78.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…cd53backed No | 50c | 72.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…4de6backed Yes | 50c | 72.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 64c | 69.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 68.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…e86dbacked Yes | 50c | 66.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3dc…1318backed No | 50c | 66.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed No | 31c | 56.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +174.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…8416backed Yes | 78c | 51.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…09f3backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 43.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 78c | 38.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 66c | 37.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed Yes | 53c | 28.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a2c2backed No | 47c | 25.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 22.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.