Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91ba174c6b02cdfbdbcf8f013652f27a3f4e4d058b180cf6c10c705786893696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,567 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,368$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 0c | 4,059$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,657$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.68 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 4c | 933.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked No | 24c | 854$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 24c | 803$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 8c | 784.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed No | 19c | 532.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 437$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 63c | 310$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed Yes | 37c | 310$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 142$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…745ebacked Yes | 80c | 125.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af6…c80dbacked Yes | 50c | 82.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…2c96backed No | 50c | 82.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf8…5414backed No | 50c | 82.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…bfedbacked Yes | 50c | 82.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…9c6dbacked No | 50c | 80.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…26ecbacked Yes | 50c | 80.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…fcd4backed No | 50c | 72.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa01f…f4a3backed Yes | 50c | 72.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c1…edbdbacked Yes | 50c | 61.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7b…84e1backed No | 50c | 61.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…92edbacked No | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…25d3backed Yes | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 18c | 58.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 51.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 72c | 48.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 73c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed6b…7215backed No | 50c | 33.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…0ef6backed Yes | 50c | 33.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…a696backed Yes | 50c | 33.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd916…5940backed No | 50c | 33.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked Yes | 70c | 33.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.