TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,629 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40c3…91aabacked Yes0c27,468$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1192…634cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes77c1,271$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.0247834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes39c770.03$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.418727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes77c639.4$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49532830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes53c610$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.9131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15b8…50b5backed Yes71c607.35$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No36c569.59$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6917243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes46c457.48$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.223850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes56c433.54$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.082339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7458…fa86backed Yes55c419.5$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.322326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c417.47$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes48c415.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes67c383.83$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6810542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes79c380$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes78c373.64$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.816538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes55c369.24$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.651,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0866…fe5fbacked No55c338.58$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.962250%11 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed No50c334.39$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.983056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes78c295.81$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.210531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No32c258.23$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0372222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4292…0fb8backed Yes70c239.53$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.67837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed No57c227.02$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7410150.5%51 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed No38c224.5$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.656258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked No27c216.68$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9111359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes52c209.24$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes75c208.86$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6315759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No35c208.56$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.222,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5228737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ddd…b092backed Yes59c187.24$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe734…c535backed Yes43c185.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65f9…4425backed No65c178.45$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.27266.7%48 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x921a…21debacked No30c172.31$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.31714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-52.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes67c161.36$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.431643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa916…8002backed Yes21c159.6$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.481145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No55c146.82$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.047,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes70c143.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes62c142.14$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.792441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9417…28a3backed No28c141.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.478139.5%32 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-37.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes79c133.13$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.75839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes14c130$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.21,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes66c130$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.552240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes36c130$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.810650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes64c129.51$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3a6…dc57backed Yes79c126.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-82.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No28c124.01$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.739262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No48c123.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7326339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed No19c121.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.024548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+50.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c74…ee19backed Yes67c116.17$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.471338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes35c110$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.827246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaac…7980backed Yes75c110$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No15c105.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.841,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe17d…bfb5backed Yes59c104.09$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+59.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4923633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fc…c6aabacked No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703246.9%15 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+56.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes80c96.92$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2920631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2eda…29debacked Yes46c83.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes56c79.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.734517.8%8 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No55c77.92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.713,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed No40c73.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.162532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed Yes73c70.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.343636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes71c69.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.431567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes39c67.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.241,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No61c65.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.081,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3592…c81abacked Yes39c64.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e90…6303backed No77c64.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed No24c63.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.588017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes78c63.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7716651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No46c62.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7634457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes50c60.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.455530.9%17 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0277…a546backed No26c57.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.391030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes35c57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9511835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes38c55.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2111436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes46c55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2420…109bbacked Yes35c53.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb422…b749backed Yes47c52.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.741838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7760…a2b1backed Yes77c51.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf0…0274backed Yes49c51.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.565429.6%16 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes41c51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306656.1%37 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No34c49.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.722,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No65c48.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.122,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes40c47.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6925536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No30c46.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5612744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd90…0a27backed Yes31c46.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+86.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes47c46.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.851560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed No63c45.94$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x749a…8218backed Yes40c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes36c44.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.053941%16 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed No33c44.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.575056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes72c44.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.760851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes72c41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.