Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefbf8680683cab3ec9e0fce6cc1ef76eec5817b9d4cc7388e61c436ab3a7ba63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40c3…91aabacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,718$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,421$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,287$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 8c | 708.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 20c | 437.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 8c | 405.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3950…e272backed Yes | 11c | 402.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 27c | 374.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 373.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 353.55$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…6ffdbacked Yes | 17c | 352.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 23c | 345.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 331.55$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 10c | 318.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 19c | 234.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 32c | 224.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…29debacked Yes | 34c | 220.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 19c | 211.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 211.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 205.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 199.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 79c | 189.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 180.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 14c | 177.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed Yes | 16c | 171.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 79c | 161.25$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 142.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f9…7f80backed Yes | 11c | 135.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…7397backed Yes | 20c | 128.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9d0bbacked Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…7980backed Yes | 13c | 109.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…ee19backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…e9a8backed Yes | 28c | 106.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 106.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 19c | 103.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 15c | 102.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…a2fdbacked Yes | 20c | 92.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 91.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…3234backed Yes | 17c | 90.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 17c | 87.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…5b2ebacked Yes | 16c | 86.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 16c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…3881backed Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 20c | 77.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked Yes | 24c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 27c | 74.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 25c | 73.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 24c | 73.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked Yes | 20c | 65.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 26c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 63.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…32dcbacked Yes | 28c | 60.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…33acbacked Yes | 18c | 55.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 71c | 54.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes | 21c | 52.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 47.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c74ebacked No | 79c | 46.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes | 33c | 44.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 48c | 41.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7733…97bdbacked No | 79c | 33.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 31.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…1e02backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1417…38afbacked No | 73c | 24.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…c90abacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f61…d063backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3984…20e8backed No | 79c | 12.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +69%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.