TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,595

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,546 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x066e…ceb2backed No1c8,933$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4447…a77fbacked No2c8,672$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c3…91aabacked No1c6,070$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes51c2,829$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,392.5348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes22c2,828$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,211.7318727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes54c1,385$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.147834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No57c1,196$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.2731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes17c1,067$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.464,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8909…c675backed No1c1,060$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes21c1,009$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.252339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes18c1,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82024010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa10…bf46backed No1c890.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes32c865.23$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.233336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes25c663.77$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.7272222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c639.92$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.192,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes19c535.17$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.531844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c526.46$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.771,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c524.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.542,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Yes40c461.09$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.493056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes13c410.8$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.279429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes65c397.57$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5610227.5%28 W · 74 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes22c397.4$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.883,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c396.04$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked No67c365.44$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.59933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes71c351.26$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0515759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes32c319.6$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.784517.8%8 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes38c278.36$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5211359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes37c268.11$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.6629922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a2…242abacked Yes30c268.08$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.083850%19 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0518…6876backed Yes10c258.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.484346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes30c243.48$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.156258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes13c239.39$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.4155919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x979c…b563backed No5c235.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.982441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No80c233.68$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.3117243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes15c211.54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.416924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes22c204.97$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3754037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes9c200.57$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.4996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes20c197.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7212744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c194.37$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.713,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes18c188.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.978017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9526…8f87backed Yes11c181.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.823941%16 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8278…9464backed Yes14c180.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.313250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes33c171.59$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.682532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No7c165.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.539262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes22c156.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.235056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No63c155.8$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes12c154.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.6495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f57…cbc7backed Yes26c153.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.28156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00b5…a03abacked Yes20c147.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.672250%11 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+32.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes26c138.08$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.367233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes34c136.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4728737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Yes20c136.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.974548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+50.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2420…109bbacked Yes26c135.32$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No80c131.33$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.452,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf911…8d8ebacked No76c130.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.310246.1%47 W · 55 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes26c130$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…c535backed Yes31c128.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.751546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes14c126.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.25530.9%17 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed No77c125.26$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes54c117.32$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.325839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed Yes59c112.55$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4510150.5%51 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes39c105.87$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2226339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad72…d5bfbacked No42c104.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.743652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes19c102.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.613946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b9e…154abacked No78c102.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804671.7%33 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes25c101.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.12441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc81…e072backed Yes11c101$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.891850%9 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+44.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.313765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4fc…c6aabacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303246.9%15 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick30cpaid+56.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes42c99.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.993333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes25c98.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.723234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes19c93.2$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes27c92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1614338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e32…2635backed No76c89$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.591926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6624…3b00backed Yes24c87.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+109.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes20c85.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9332548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c84.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3395942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4bdf…98a3backed No34c82.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.948549.4%42 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed Yes21c81.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.153636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3984…20e8backed Yes14c78.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.141258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+69%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes59c76.56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.510531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes16c75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1521919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29d3…23ebbacked Yes27c73.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.82633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked No67c70$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.11435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes74c65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498d…f180backed Yes18c64.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+266.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2eda…29debacked Yes30c62.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa916…8002backed Yes23c61.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.491145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2dc…b534backed Yes17c60.59$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.37650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+85.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.31,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes49c58.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7316651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes25c55.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0511436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ae…4325backed Yes37c54.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70f…0522backed Yes55c54.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.564100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c9…fcf7backed Yes19c53.11$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+160.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes25c50.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.017737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35cd…9fa9backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.