Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4576a53db92a1c3d370911b1a1f6656fbc6ff1749a000b927bb0831b74c9e077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed No | 1c | 8,933$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a77fbacked No | 2c | 8,672$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c3…91aabacked No | 1c | 6,070$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 51c | 2,829$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.53 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 22c | 2,828$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.73 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,385$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.1 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 57c | 1,196$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.27 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,067$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8909…c675backed No | 1c | 1,060$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,009$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa10…bf46backed No | 1c | 890.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 32c | 865.23$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.23 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 25c | 663.77$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.72 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 639.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.19 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes | 19c | 535.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 526.46$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 524.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.54 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Yes | 40c | 461.09$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.49 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 13c | 410.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.27 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 65c | 397.57$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 397.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 396.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 67c | 365.44$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 71c | 351.26$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 32c | 319.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.78 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 38c | 278.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 37c | 268.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.66 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 30c | 268.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.08 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…6876backed Yes | 10c | 258.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.48 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 30c | 243.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.15 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 13c | 239.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.41 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…b563backed No | 5c | 235.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 80c | 233.68$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.31 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 15c | 211.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 22c | 204.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.37 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 200.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.49 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 20c | 197.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.72 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 194.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 18c | 188.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 14c | 180.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.3 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 33c | 171.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.68 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 7c | 165.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed Yes | 22c | 156.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 155.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 12c | 154.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…cbc7backed Yes | 26c | 153.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 20c | 147.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 26c | 138.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.36 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 34c | 136.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 20c | 136.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…109bbacked Yes | 26c | 135.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 131.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 76c | 130.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…c535backed Yes | 31c | 128.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 14c | 126.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 77c | 125.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 54c | 117.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 59c | 112.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 39c | 105.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…d5bfbacked No | 42c | 104.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 19c | 102.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…7fbcbacked Yes | 25c | 101.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…3c17backed Yes | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 25c | 98.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 19c | 93.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…2635backed No | 76c | 89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6624…3b00backed Yes | 24c | 87.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 20c | 85.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 84.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 34c | 82.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 21c | 81.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3984…20e8backed Yes | 14c | 78.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +69%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 59c | 76.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…23ebbacked Yes | 27c | 73.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…f180backed Yes | 18c | 64.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +266.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…29debacked Yes | 30c | 62.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…8002backed Yes | 23c | 61.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b534backed Yes | 17c | 60.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 49c | 58.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 25c | 55.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…4325backed Yes | 37c | 54.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…0522backed Yes | 55c | 54.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…fcf7backed Yes | 19c | 53.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 25c | 50.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…9fa9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.